A tectonic shift is reshaping global power dynamics as the US redeploys strength from Europe and the Middle East to East Asia, confronting a resurgent China seeking to reclaim its historical status. As the Ukraine war edges toward a frozen conflict, Washington is gaining latitude to redirect assets and attention from European commitments to counter Beijing’s growing influence.
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Elbridge Colby, US President Donald Trump’s nominee for a senior defence role, crystallised this urgency in a Wall Street Journal letter, saying that “[the US’] core interest is in denying China regional hegemony over Asia”. Far from an isolated move, this strategic realignment triggers a cascade of adjustments among key players – Russia, China, Europe and US allies in Asia.
For Russia, the US refocus could be a chance to rethink its “no-limits partnership” with China – a marriage of convenience, in large part, developed due to its isolation after it invaded Ukraine. Historically wary of a powerful, revisionist China along its nearly 4,300km border, Moscow has leaned on Beijing out of necessity, not affinity.
With Washington signalling an openness to improve ties – potentially admitting Russia into the Group of Seven, formerly the Group of Eight – this dependency may wane. Russia could emerge as a pivotal US ally in balancing China, leveraging its Pacific presence to force Beijing to split its strategic focus.
This possibility echoes Cold War precedents. The 1960s Sino-Soviet split allowed the US to align with China against Russia, shifting the global order. Today, with Russia as the weakest of the three great powers, a partnership with the Kremlin against a stronger China makes pragmatic sense.
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Unlike China, which has ample capability to pursue East Asian hegemony, Russia lacks the military, economic or demographic strength to dominate Europe or Eurasia. This is underscored by Russia’s military stumbles in Ukraine, its population size – less than one-third that of the European Union’s – and its economy, which is smaller than Italy’s. For the US, peeling Russia from China’s orbit could be a strategic coup, even if it means tempering Ukraine’s territorial integrity.