The escalating trade war between China and the United States has pushed the global economy to the brink of recession. Neither side shows signs of blinking. Washington has ramped up tariffs and tightened restrictions on Chinese tech, prompting retaliation from Beijing, which pledges to “fight till the end”. US President Donald Trump insists that America will emerge victorious; Chinese President Xi Jinping warns there will be “no winners” in a trade war.
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In reality, both countries have reasons to negotiate, but neither wants to make the first move. Any unilateral gesture could risk being framed as capitulation. Yet continued escalation carries far higher costs.
To break the deadlock, two diplomatic paths offer face-saving ways forward: Beijing could publicly invite the US to negotiate in China, or a neutral third party – perhaps Malaysia, this year’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) chair – could broker a meeting on the sidelines of a regional summit.
Reciting a statement apparently dictated by Trump, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt has said “the ball is in China’s court”. The Trump administration says around 75 countries have reached out to Washington through various channels. Meanwhile, Beijing’s public reluctance to reach out has become conspicuous – an act of defiance that seems to have stoked Trump’s ire.
Last week, the US government barred Nvidia from selling its H20 chip to China, further inflaming tensions in an already volatile tech stand-off. Moreover, the US has sought to leverage trade negotiations to pressure other countries into isolating China, economically and politically. Ultimately, Trump aims to force Xi to the negotiating table.
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Beijing, for its part, has turned to its neighbours and beyond in search of alternative markets and political support. In late March, top officials from China, Japan and South Korea convened their first trade talks in five years, signalling a renewed interest in regional economic integration amid Trump’s mounting tariff threats.