The international landscape in early 2025 defies easy categorisation or prediction. As conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza show, the rules-based international order appears to be giving way to something more fluid and unpredictable. It’s not necessarily a complete return to the law of the jungle but rather a hybrid system characterised by transactional diplomacy, strategic improvisation and fundamental uncertainty.
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The defining feature of the global climate is how unpredictable it is. Traditional models for forecasting international behaviour have faltered as leaders increasingly make decisions based on short-term domestic political considerations rather than long-established strategic doctrines.
The White House’s public shaming of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky exemplifies this new normal where alliances are increasingly conditional. For smaller and medium powers, this volatility presents an existential challenge – how to plan for security when the intentions of major powers remain opaque and subject to sudden shifts?
International relations increasingly operate on transactional rather than value-based terms. Nations approach each interaction as a discrete negotiation aimed at maximising immediate advantage rather than building enduring cooperation frameworks.
Russia’s deepening relationship with North Korea exemplifies this partnership based not on ideological alignment but on mutual short-term benefits. Moscow receives military aid for its war in Ukraine while Pyongyang gains economic relief and diplomatic cover.
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China’s recent announcement of a 7.2 per cent increase in its defence budget, bringing the official figure to more than US$245 billion, reflects Beijing’s strategic calculus in this unpredictable environment. The People’s Liberation Army Navy emerges as the most visible manifestation of China’s evolving military posture. With its third aircraft carrier expected to enter into service this year and a fourth under construction, the PLA navy has been conducting increasingly sophisticated exercises beyond the first island chain.