How North Korea might take advantage of Trump’s second presidency

Could North Korean leader Kim Jong-un capitalise on another chance during a Trump 2.0 era? Having leveraged Russian President Vladimir Putin’s struggles in Ukraine to his benefit, Kim could again find a way to win US President Donald Trump over. When Trump called Kim his “friend”, North Korea seemed quick to adjust its strategies to take advantage of the dynamic.

At the same time, Nato, China and South Korea would likely need to brace themselves, as Trump continues to claim these nations have been profiting at America’s expense – a situation he seems intent on changing. The alarm bells ringing worldwide over Trump’s “America first” policy echo the repercussions of a US retreat from the global security stage, disrupting balances of power and amplifying a sense of crisis, particularly among its allies.

In the context of alliance realignment, South Korea attracts significant attention. Trump’s call for a sharp increase in South Korea’s defence contributions to US$10 billion – nearly nine times the current amount – and his depiction of South Korea as a “money machine” highlight potential shifts in the alliance.

If this trajectory continues, coupled with discussions of drastic measures such as the withdrawal of US forces and the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons, South Korea may be forced to pursue greater self-reliance in national defence. This is because, whenever previous US administrations considered reducing troop presence in South Korea, the country significantly enhanced its self-reliant defence capabilities under the slogan of localising defence.

The stakes are different for North Korea. Trump’s return offers Pyongyang an opportunity to revisit its unfinished objectives. In a speech following Trump’s election, Kim had referred to his past negotiations with Trump and framed them as indicative of the United States’ “aggressive and hostile” policy towards North Korea. Yet, some experts believe his remarks could be a calculated strategy to capture Trump’s attention.

On January 6, just two weeks before Trump’s inauguration, North Korea launched a suspected hypersonic missile. This was followed by the launch of short-range ballistic missiles on January 14, further escalating tensions. With Russia as a key ally, North Korea likely believes that such actions could enhance its leverage in negotiations.

  

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