Hong Kong could return to operating account surplus in 2025-26: Paul Chan

Hong Kong is on track to return to an operating account surplus for the 2025-26 financial year, with the result largely fuelled by a surge in stamp duty income from the city’s robust stock market performance, the finance chief has said.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po made his prediction of a surplus – set to occur a year earlier than previously estimated – on Sunday, while cautioning that economic growth in the second half of the year would be less pronounced than in the first, without the export surge driven by “rush shipments” ahead of renewed US tariffs.

“For stamp duty, we expect to gain about HK$130 million [US$16.5 million] for every HK$100 billion of transactions because some transactions, such as the exchange-traded products, are exempt from stamp duty,” he told a radio programme.

The Hang Seng Index has recorded an increase of more than 25 per cent so far this year. The average daily turnover in the stock market for the first half of the year was about HK$240 billion, an increase of 120 per cent year on year.

Hong Kong’s stock exchange earlier reported a surge in IPO activity in the first quarter of the year, with 17 new listings attracting a total of HK$18.7 billion, nearly quadrupling year-on-year figures.

“If the momentum goes on, the operating account in the 2025-26 financial year, which we earlier predicted to suffer a deficit of several billion dollars, may return to surplus,” Chan said.

The government earlier predicted that the operating account would return to a surplus in the 2026-27 financial year.