In the ever-shifting landscape of American politics, 2024 is shaping up to be a year of extraordinary significance – yet again. US President Joe Biden’s campaign exit means Vice-President Kamala Harris is set to step into the role of the Democratic presidential nominee, a terrain fraught with peril but also potential.
While polls suggest a daunting challenge ahead, with Harris trailing former president Donald Trump by 1.5 points as of late last week, her path to victory is not entirely foreclosed. Through a combination of strategic positioning and a resonant message, she can still emerge victorious.
In 2020, Harris’ first presidential campaign never took off. Rather, it was marred by internal disarray and an apparent inability to connect with voters, particularly the party’s progressive wing. Critics rightfully highlighted her inconsistent messaging and lack of readiness for prime time. Memories of certain performances remain vivid, along with her inability to defend her record as California’s attorney general.
But every job comes with a learning curve. It seems intellectually dishonest to say that 3½ years as the nation’s No 2 have not shaped Harris, a highly educated and successful woman, and turned her into a more complete politician.
Naysayers will argue that her tenure doesn’t support this argument. However, one should not forget that the vice-presidency does not lend itself to standing out or even stepping out of the president’s shadow. The gap between the vice-presidential role and its responsibilities has always been immense. Nelson Rockefeller, when asked about his duties as vice-president, replied: “I go to funerals. I go to earthquakes.”
Now, Harris will step into the limelight, which must be an upgrade over Biden, and thus increase the Democrats’ chances of keeping Trump out of the Oval Office. Updated polls for the battleground states have yet to be published, but Trump has been comfortably leading in most by 5–7 points. However, polling is not destiny. The fluidity of public opinion, especially in the volatile environment of an election year, means that these numbers will shift – not least because it is a new day in Washington.
The Trump team has focused its resources and strategy on Biden. They crafted various angles of attacks, led by the narratives of Biden’s age and alleged dementia, controversies surrounding his son and accusations of corruption.
While there is a rudimentary Harris contingency plan somewhere in the drawer, MAGA world will now be scrambling for a new strategy. But time is of the essence. Trump’s unparalleled ability to vilify his opponents is well documented, but Harris presents a unique challenge for his campaign.
For example, America did not want a Biden-Trump rematch. Now, a fresh alternative has emerged, one that lacks the entrenched vulnerabilities that years of scrutiny have revealed in Biden and were frankly irreversible, such as age and his lacklustre public appearances.
Indeed, the issue of age has been turned on its head, with Trump now being the oldest nominee in history, thereby immediately introducing a stark contrast between past and future to the wider public.
Biden’s inability to sell his success and his vision to America does not apply to Harris, either. A skilled former lawyer and prosecutor, she will be able to regularly appear in public, hold impromptu press conferences and communicate cogent ideas to the American people, explaining how they will make a difference.
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Kamala Harris, a trailblazer eyeing America’s highest glass ceiling
Kamala Harris, a trailblazer eyeing America’s highest glass ceiling
The skill set of communication, non-existent under Biden, will be a particular asset when it comes to the pivotal issue of abortion. The US Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs Wade has ignited a fierce national debate, with states enacting draconian laws.
Two years after the ruling, reproductive rights have been lost in multiple states, 14 of which have ceased nearly all abortion services. Trump, whose campaign will cater to the anti-abortion audience, had made this possible by appointing three of the court’s judges.
Trump struggled with women voters in 2020. Aside from accusations of sexual misconduct, championing anti-abortion values will make it even harder for him this time.
In contrast, Harris’ stance on reproductive rights and her advocacy for women’s issues will resonate with female voters. As a staunch defender of Roe vs Wade and an advocate for women’s health, Harris can position herself as a protector of women’s rights. She is likely to run on codifying Roe vs Wade as president.
Another advantage Harris holds is her ability to mobilise young and minority voters. As the first woman of colour on a major party’s presidential ticket, she can bring a perspective and representation that Biden could not fully encapsulate.
The discontent that had begun to appear, particularly among younger and more diverse voters towards Biden, can be eased by Harris. Moreover, battleground states such as Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania are increasingly more diverse and may respond more positively to her candidacy.
Make no mistake, Harris faces a formidable challenge as she seeks to become the next US president. The current political climate, with its deep polarisation and economic uncertainty, favours Trump.
But in this dynamic, unpredictable theatre that is American politics, Harris’ unique attributes – a seasoned politician with fresh appeal, a champion for women and minorities, and a symbol of progress – could well prevail over Trump’s message of unyielding populism and threats of retribution. For America’s sake, let’s hope so.
Thomas O. Falk is a journalist and political analyst who writes about German, British and US politics
