As 2025 draws to a close, it marks an important milestone in the reconfiguration of the global economic system. Every century is defined not only by changes in technological leadership and shifts in global power, but also by the restructuring of the global financial system. The 20th century was the century of the US dollar, but with the arrival of the 21st century, the contours of the global macroeconomic system have begun to change.
A recent International Monetary Fund study, “Playing with Blocs: Quantifying Decoupling”, examines how global trade is being reorganised between two emerging blocs centred on the United States and China. The findings suggest world economic development may not return to globalisation but instead be oriented towards the strengthening of a macro-regional structure.
This logic fully aligns with the latest US national security strategy, which emphasises the formation of macro-regions and continuing US competition with China. In effect, the US is re-evaluating the format of global leadership in favour of building a self-sufficient macro-region under its leadership, apparently leaving Asia to China.
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With the dollar increasingly not the only currency used for international settlements, the question is which financial instrument or resource is likely to prove most effective. Given the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) as a high-technology driver, energy appears to be the most natural answer.
A new economy based on knowledge, information and technology does not function without access to affordable resources and human capital. Only a limited number of countries have both a strong resource base and a long-term commitment to investment in science and education.
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China stands out, having developed its own large language models and accelerated the deployment of AI technologies. It is close behind the US in this field, and Russia and other countries are also advancing in this direction, having recognised this key global development trend at an early stage.