Mainstream global opinion since Donald Trump won the US presidential election has been that his administration will bring instability to the world by imposing stiff import tariffs and abandoning America’s role as a security provider.
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On Trump’s proposed tariffs, there are two main views: one is that he sees them as a bargaining chip for concessions, the other is that he is serious about implementing and broadly enforcing his campaign promises. Experts generally agree that Trump’s focus on tariffs on Chinese goods is genuine.
We believe high tariffs and a withdrawal from providing global security are the two primary paths Trump has laid out to achieve his goal of making America great again. Therein lies a significant political and economic opportunity for China.
For a start, Trump cannot aim these two policy thrusts solely at China; that would not help his goal at all. Making America great again has its own logic, which is to restore the country as the world’s leading manufacturing power. Only by protecting its domestic market and acquiring vast external funds can Trump ultimately serve his goal.
The United States’ social system produced Wall Street, which led the country to develop and operate its economy along financial capitalist lines. Wall Street became an outsize part of the US economy and society.
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In this context, the decline of US manufacturing was inevitable, as was the loss of its crown as the world’s top industrial power. This has led to traditional manufacturing towns in the United States suffering from economic decline, unemployment and lower living standards.