A former top US national security adviser said on Tuesday that Beijing was using a stand-off with the Philippines in the South China Sea as a “dress rehearsal” for an attack on Taiwan.
Speaking at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington think tank, Matthew Pottinger, the top Asia adviser on former president Donald Trump’s National Security Council, said the US should help resupply Filipino marines on the Second Thomas Shoal as a signal to China that the US will support allies in the region militarily.
In recent clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels near the shoal, Beijing has acted with “impunity”, Pottinger said. “Why is Beijing targeting this little island to begin with? It’s mainly about trying to discredit the United States. It’s a dress rehearsal for Taiwan.”
“They’re doing it on a little tiny model of Taiwan, which is this little island … that is not, by itself, a major, geo-strategically important spot,” he said, adding that Beijing is “trying to demonstrate that they can blockade, create a sense of futility and discredit the idea that the United States is going to help not only the Philippines but by extension Taiwan”.
Manila and Beijing have been locked in a months-long territorial row in the South China Sea, with the latest skirmish last month between the Philippine navy and the Chinese coastguard. The melee caused injuries to several Filipinos, including a sailor who lost a finger.
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Chinese and Philippine ships clash in first incident under Beijing’s new coast guard law
Chinese and Philippine ships clash in first incident under Beijing’s new coast guard law
Philippine forces were on a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II vessel deliberately grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 and occupied by their fellow troops. The flashpoint is known to Manila as the Ayungin Shoal; Beijing calls it Renai Jiao. Both sides claim it is a part of their maritime territory.
The skirmishes have sparked debate about what would trigger US military involvement in light of a defence treaty between Manila and Washington, one of five that the US has in the Indo-Pacific. The others are with Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Australia.
Pottinger, who has been vocal about the need for a tougher line against China in the Indo-Pacific militarily, said the run-ins should trigger a mutual defence treaty response, but he included some qualifications.
That should only happen “if President [Ferdinand] Marcos [Jnr], and in discussion with President Biden, decide that that would be the best course”, he said. “I’m not saying that means we go to war. I’m saying we need to acknowledge … what’s happening and start imposing much more serious costs” on Beijing.
When asked about the possibility of joint US-Philippine resupply missions in the South China Sea, Pottinger said: “We should be ready to do that. I hope we’re ready to do that. It’s sort of a ‘Berlin airlift’ to keep … those Philippine marines on Second Thomas Shoal and on some of these other islands supplied.”
Turning to diplomacy with China, Pottinger lauded the Biden administration’s efforts to boost the “Quad” security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the United States to the leader level, after the Trump administration revived the grouping and held meetings on the ministerial level.
But Pottinger was less complimentary about Biden’s efforts to engage diplomatically with Beijing, using initial bilateral talks on the use of artificial intelligence in managing and deploying nuclear weapons.
Convened in Geneva, Switzerland, in May, Pottinger contended that “those talks are not being taken seriously by the Chinese side”.
“They sent a couple of foreign ministry mid-level officials to the first round of talks, [and] didn’t have anyone prepared to talk seriously about our concerns,” he said.
The Chinese delegation was led by Yang Tao, director general of the foreign ministry’s North American and Oceanian affairs department, and included officials from the science and technology ministry, the National Development and Reform Commission and other government agencies.
Tarun Chhabra, special assistant to the president and senior director for technology and national security at the National Security Council, and Seth Center, the State Department’s acting special envoy for critical and emerging technology, led the US side, with Commerce Department officials also present.
Last week, senior Biden administration officials sent mixed messages about the AI negotiations.
Speaking a Council on Foreign Relations event in Washington, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said “both nations understand, on some level, some of the challenges that AI presents to military command and control”.
In a separate discussion at the same event, Chhabra said Beijing did not agree with American policy on the issue.
