From bustling departure halls in Bangkok to bumper bookings in Singapore, Southeast Asia’s air travel industry is thriving. But beneath the surface, analysts warn that US tariffs and slowing growth could soon take the wind out of the region’s post-pandemic recovery.
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Last month, the Asian Development Bank trimmed its growth outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.7 per cent for 2025, down from April’s 4.9 per cent forecast, citing weaker global trade.
The revision comes as Southeast Asian exporters are grappling with US tariffs of up to 20 per cent, alongside targeted duties on sectors such as steel and semiconductors.
“There is a significant amount of ‘wait and see’ required as the scale of US protectionism is unprecedented in the modern era and the differentiated economic impacts on Asia-Pacific countries are yet to be determined,” said Gary Bowerman, co-founder of consultancy High-Yield Tourism and founder of weekly industry newsletter Asia Travel Re:Set.
He said he expected the first half of 2026 to be “a challenging period across Asia-Pacific economies, which may be reflected in leisure and business travel patterns” – with the potential to adversely affect all travel segments “but especially airlines and hotels”.
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