Beijing’s refusal to resolve the standoff with Washington limits its ability to tackle challenges at home, according to analysts.
News Analysis
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership on Friday pledged to stabilize the nation’s economy as it grapples with increasing external shocks. Analysts suggest that this goal might be complicated by Beijing’s hard stance in facing U.S. tariffs.
During a closed-door meeting, the Politburo, the CCP’s second-highest leadership panel, urged officials to “coordinate domestic economic work with international trade battles,” according to the official readout.
Chaired by Party chief Xi Jinping, leaders also vowed in the meeting to introduce new “structural monetary policy instruments” along with financial instruments aimed at bolstering technical innovation, shoring up consumption, and stabilizing foreign investments, it added, without elaborating.
The 24 senior leaders of the Politburo typically convene at the end of April to discuss economic matters. Although the meeting only yielded a brief, jargon-filled statement, it offers vital clues into Beijing’s economic priorities, making it a focal point for investors and analysts alike.
“This Politburo meeting is very important; it’s where decisions are made,” Wang He, a U.S.-based China affairs commentator and a former university lecturer in China, told The Epoch Times.
With the triple-digit U.S. tariff against China-origin goods entering its third week, its repercussions are starting to take shape.
“What direction will we take next? The Politburo meeting must set the path forward,” Wang said.
For now, Beijing appears to be holding firm in its hard stance against Washington’s demands, according to Wang.
“The assertive declaration of ‘coordinating domestic economic work with international trade battles’ indicates that the CCP intends to persist in this trade war. They’re preparing for a long fight with the United States,” Wang said. “It’s a chilling message.”
Such an approach also threatens to undermine the Politburo’s pledge to maintain economic stability domestically, according to Sun Kuo-hsiang, a professor at Nanhua University in Taiwan.
“China’s economy remains under substantial internal pressure,” Sun told The Epoch Times. “In the face of a slowing economy, an uncompromising approach to trade fights leaves Beijing with little room to maneuver strategically in tackling domestic issues.”
Official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) on April 16 reports that China’s economy expanded at a 5.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter of this year, surpassing analysts’ expectations. But economists are skeptical about the sustainability of this rate of growth.
Global investment banks recently trimmed their forecasts for China’s economic growth for this year, due to concerns that the hefty U.S. tariffs would starve its export engine. The most pessimistic outlook was from UBS, whose economists predicted a mere 3.4 percent growth for China this year as a result of the tariffs.
Sun said that despite the Chinese regime’s repeated pledges of support, some longstanding issues continue to plague the Chinese economy. That ranges from the prolonged real estate crisis and local government debts to weak consumer spending and record-high jobless rates.
“It seems to have become common for companies to hold off on hiring, and young people have difficulty finding jobs,” he said.
The official summary of Friday’s meeting stressed the importance of stabilizing employment—mentioning it twice—while committing to improve job retention by increasing unemployment insurance for companies significantly affected by tariffs.
According to the most recent NBS official data, 16.5 percent of Chinese citizens between the ages of 16 and 24 in cities were unemployed in March. While it marked a reversal of a rising trend that lasted two months, the official figures have been criticized for failing to capture the full picture of the country’s unemployment crisis. Beijing’s measure doesn’t account for students, those living in rural areas, or individuals who give up looking for work entirely.
Adding to the economic pressures is Beijing’s decision to “fight to the end“ in the tariff war with the United States.
A wave of small and medium-sized Chinese companies involved in foreign trade have halted operations or shifted to the domestic market, putting millions of Chinese jobs at risk.
Goldman Sachs estimated that the U.S. tariffs could potentially threaten up to 20 million jobs linked to exports in China and that the decline in exports, coupled with a sluggish global economy, will significantly pressure China’s labor market.
In response to these challenges, Sun said Beijing is likely to resort to increased social control.
“By tightening ideology and speech controls, China may achieve the goal of maintaining stability, but it will further suppress innovation and vitality, creating a policy dilemma [for its economic survival],” he said.
Luo Ya contributed to this report.