Three-term Sen. John Tester and poll-ascending Tim Sheehy clash on the border, abortion policy, public lands management, health care programs, Ukraine support.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said the Biden administration has “not done a good job” on the border, and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy declined to confirm or deny support for federal abortion restrictions, during a Sept. 30 debate, the first and last scheduled in their pivotal U.S. Senate race.
The hour-long exchange on the University of Montana campus in Missoula also featured discussions on federal public lands management, support for Ukraine, and affordable housing and health care programs, with Sheehy disputing claims he supports “pure privatization” of Medicare/Medicaid.
Tester, 68, the only statewide-elected Democrat in deep red Montana, played to his self-described “dirt farmer from Big Sandy” roots as a folksy centrist who has won three U.S. Senate elections by defeating Republican “multimillionaire out-of-staters.”
It is an undercurrent theme in volleys with his opponent, a first-time candidate who thanked the senator for his service before declaring, “It’s time for a new generation of leadership.”
Sheehy, 38, a former U.S. Navy SEAL and Iraq/Afghanistan war veteran, founded aerial fire-fighting company Bridger Aerospace in 2014, which employs more than 200 Montanans.
Sheehy is endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
Unseating Tester is among Republicans’ top 2024 priorities. Retaining his seat is a must-win for the Democrats.
With at least $130 million spent, the Tester–Sheehy race is the most expensive campaign in state history.
Unlike 2022’s midterms, when the GOP was defending 20 of 34 seats in the split 50–50 chamber, in 2024, Democrats and the four independents who caucus with them are defending 23 of 33 seats on Nov. 5 ballots.
Republicans need only flip two to notch chamber leadership. At least eight races for Democrat-held seats are competitive while only two GOP-held seats are marginally so.
Tester is one of two Democrat senators seeking reelection in 2024 in states Trump won in 2020.
The other is Ohio’s Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is facing a “toss-up” challenge.
Tester is seeking a fourth term in a state that Trump took by 16.5 percentage points in 2020.
West Virginia former Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring but as an independent.
Republicans are projected to flip at least two seats, including his.
In West Virginia, term-limited Gov. Jim Justice is regarded as a near-lock to succeed Manchin, and the Cook Political Report last month gauged Sheehy is favored to win the “Lean Republican” Montana U.S. Senate race.
FiveThirtyEight’s Sept. 30 polling aggregate gives Sheehy a 3.7-point advantage over Tester, with the challenger gaining steam since early August.
A Sept. 12–19 survey by RMG Associates of 491 likely voters found Sheehy up by 7 percentage points, 50 percent to 43 percent.
In that same poll, respondents chose Trump by 21 percentage points, 59 percent to 38 percent, over Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.
Less than five weeks earlier, an RMG Associates’ Aug. 6–Aug. 14 survey of 540 likely voters showed Tester leading by 5 percentage points, 49 percent to 44 percent.
Detecting that shift in momentum, Sabato’s Crystal Ball reclassified the race from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Republican” on Sept. 6. The Cook Political Report followed suit on Sept. 12.
Tester’s campaign has dramatically out-raised and out-spent Sheehy’s operation.
According to Tester’s last quarterly Federal Elections Commission (FEC) filing, on June 30, he had raised $43.77 million, spent $33.37 million, and had $10.88 million cash on hand.
In Sheehy’s June 30 FEC filing, his campaign reported raising $14 million, spending $10.82 million, and having $3.24 million in the bank. Much is self-funded.
Outside PACs have spent more than $78 million on Montana’s U.S. Senate race, according to OpenSecrets.
GOP-supporting PACs have spent more than $44 million, and Democrat-leaning PACs have spent $34.5 million, the nonprofit reports.
On immigration policy and the border, Tester agreed with Sheehy that “Biden has not done a good job on the southern border” and noted he opposed the president repealing Trump’s “stay-in-Mexico policy.”
“I thought it was a bad decision. There are other decisions he made I thought were bad for the border,” he said. “But the bottom line is this, Congress needs to do its job, too.”
Tester said at Trump’s bidding, House Republicans “playing politics” shot down a bipartisan border security bill last spring.
“The party bosses say, ‘Nope, can’t pass this. We need to use this. This is a political tool in this election.’ And if you don’t believe it’s being used as a political tool, just turn on the TV,” he said. “We had a solution. It was there.”
Sheehy called it a bad bill that he would reject regardless of what “party bosses” said.
While the Biden administration “repealed all of Trump’s executive orders,” he said, congressional Democrats proposed a bill that would have legalized millions of illegal immigrants.
“The bill Sen. Tester was talking about would have enshrined a massive level of continued illegal immigration. They simply would have legalized it. They called it ‘legal,’” he said. “I said, ‘No, absolutely not.’ And I say, ‘No again.’ Final word.”
Sheehy denied supporting “pure privatization” of Medicaid/Medicare and reiterated opposition to a federal single-payer health care system.
“One size fits all. That’s a pathway to a disastrous health care system. The truth is, the private sector still is the largest provider of health care in our country. Taking that and handing it to the government is not the right answer,” he said.
“We’ve got to continue to make sure Medicare and Medicaid are funded, but private health care is going to be our answer to making sure we continue to provide those key services for rural Americans.”
He never clearly answered if he’d support a federal law limiting or banning abortion, noting he supports exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.
“But at some point,” Sheehy said, “when there’s a viable life, another viable life, that life also has the right to protection.”
Tester said: “Well, the bottom line is, it’s not state government’s decision, not Tim Sheehy’s decision, not John Tester’s decision. No. It’s the woman’s decision.
“The fact of the matter is, this is fundamental to who we are as Montanans, the right to make decisions about our health care.”
Referring to the abortion measure on Montana’s Nov. 5 ballot, he said, “This initiative needs to pass, which would reinstate ‘Roe’ and, quite frankly, reinstate the freedom that women and families have had nearly my entire life.”
Tester claimed that Sheehy supports efforts to sell Montana’s 87 million acres of federal public lands, noting he served on the board of the Property and Environment Research Center (PERC), a property rights nonprofit.
Sheehy called Tester’s claim “blatantly incorrect,” saying that PERC “advocated for better private management of our public land services” operated by concessionaires and contractors, not privatizing federal lands.
“No one, including myself and that organization, has ever advocated for selling our public lands,” he said.
“Never have and never will, but I do, and absolutely will every day, advocate for more local control of those lands, because I believe they belong to you, not the government.”
Both expressed staunch support for Israel in destroying Hamas and Hezbollah.
Tester said the United States and its allies must continue to aid Ukraine, while Sheehy said Europeans need to spearhead resistance to Russia because the United States faces growing global security challenges, especially in countering China’s growing menace.