The presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris comes at a time of rising geopolitical tensions on multiple fronts. In the 10th report of an in-depth series, Amber Wang looks at how the candidate’s attitudes to the US military could shape the future of US-China military relations.
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A victory for Donald Trump in the coming US presidential election next month could inject greater unpredictability and complexity into US-China military relations, given the former president’s history of friction with military officials, analysts warned.
US Vice-President Kamala Harris, who recently vowed to continue military communications with Beijing, is more likely to stick to President Joe Biden’s policies countering China, offering greater certainty if she wins the election, they said.
“If he [Trump] becomes president, his relationship with the military will be complex and potentially tense, although, broadly speaking, the military must obey the [orders from the] president,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University’s School of International Studies in Beijing.
The overall US-China relationship will deteriorate further and become more difficult to manage, Shi said, adding that the relationship between the two militaries “will be similarly affected”.
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The clashes between Trump and US military officials during his presidency from 2017 to 2021 encompassed a range of issues, including his proposals to use the military against protesters and their differences over external military strategy, such as a rapid withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and military aid to Ukraine.