Cop29, the UN climate change conference, convenes in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital, from November 11-22. Compared to Cop28 host, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), less is known about Azerbaijan – but that is about to change. The South Caucasus country bridging Eastern Europe and Western Asia is poised to be a middle power in a multipolar world.
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Cop29 will focus on the funds needed to limit global warming to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. The contentious Cop28 and previous UN climate conferences will look like a cakewalk in comparison. The latest UN emissions gap report, “No more hot air … please!”, warns of a catastrophic rise of 2.6-3.1 degrees this century under current national pledges.
“We’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. He added: “People are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods.”
Perhaps Cop29 is the moment for Azerbaijan – with more than 10 million people, mostly secular Muslims, and with over 80 ethnic minorities – to step into the global sunshine. For me as a Jew, its settlement of about 30,000 Jews, a community dating back to antiquity and which has largely not faced antisemitism in the country, speaks volumes about Azerbaijan.
The country inhabits a politically dynamic area at the Caspian Sea, neighbouring Armenia, Georgia, Iran and Russia. A vital trade route along the Silk Road, Azerbaijan was historically a focus for powers such as the Ottomans, Persians and Russians – as it is now for Turkey, Iran and Russia, especially after it became a major oil producer in the 19th century.
For Azerbaijan, as for China, the past is prologue. Since the restoration of independence after the Soviet collapse, there has been a desire to “Make Azerbaijan great again”, but unlike some other nations, it is doing so by pursuing an independent policy, not taking sides.