China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Myanmar on Wednesday after heavy fighting near the Chinese border saw rebel groups making a series of gains that prompted suggestions it marked a “fundamental change” in the situation.
Recently Beijing has stepped up its efforts to mediate between the ruling junta and a loose alliance of ethnic minority rebel groups with which it also maintains relations.
Wang’s visit to Myanmar, the highest-level Chinese visit since May last year, follows special envoy Deng Xijun’s trip to Naypyidaw last week to meet junta chief Min Aung Hlaing and the arrival of China’s new ambassador Ma Jia on Monday.
In a statement ahead of Wang’s visit, the Chinese foreign ministry said: “China strictly follows the principle of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs, supports Myanmar’s effort to uphold stability … and provides constructive help for parties in Myanmar to properly address differences through political consultation within the framework of the constitution and other laws.”
Yin Yihang, a fellow on Myanmar affairs at Beijing think tank the Taihe Institute, said Wang’s visit, which will also include a trip to Thailand for talks with Mekong River states, was “very timely” after a Chinese-brokered ceasefire in Myanmar fell apart in June.
In a rare admission of failure, Major General Zaw Min Tun confirmed last week that three senior military commanders, including a major general in the northeastern command in Lashio, had been “captured by terrorist insurgents”.
Yin said: “After the occupation of Lashio, an important town in Shan state, the situation in Myanmar has undergone a fundamental change.”
He added that the change “does not only involve the ruling status of the Myanmar military or the political situation in Myanmar” and pointed out that the “armed forces occupying Lashio are the Kokang Allied Forces, which are also the armed forces of the Han Chinese in Myanmar”.
China’s ties with Myanmar’s military regime have warmed over the past year or so.
Beijing has never condemned the 2021 coup that brought the junta to power and has remained a major arms supplier in the face of Western sanctions. But it has never officially recognised it amid concerns about its ability to control the country and its international isolation.
“One purpose of this visit is to give the Myanmar authorities a reassurance, because since coming to power, the Myanmar military has always wanted China’s support, and wants China to provide support like Russia,” Yin said.
He added this support would take the form of visits by high-level officials or public recognition of its government.
Beijing remains deeply worried that the fighting in northern Myanmar may spill over the border. Earlier this year it protested after five people in the town of Nansan in Yunnan province were wounded by shells fired across the border.
In a move believed to be part of efforts to press Myanmar’s military and rebels to abide by the truce, the People’s Liberation Army held live-fire exercises near the border in April.
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Myanmar’s military government lost direct control over 86% of its territory after months of fighting
Myanmar’s military government lost direct control over 86% of its territory after months of fighting
The renewed fighting was a major issue at last month’s meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which expressed “deep concern over the escalation”.
But diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis with a five-point peace plan previously agreed between the junta and the bloc have been unsuccessful.
On Monday, the United Nations condemned what it called the “deeply concerning trend” of spiralling violence in Myanmar, especially in Shan state and Rakhine on the border with Bangladesh.
Yin said another problem for Wang was the increased scrutiny of China’s ties with the rebel groups after the fall of Lashio, the first time opponents of the junta have captured a regional command centre since the coup.
“The Burmese believe that these ethnic minority armed forces are inextricably linked to China,” he said.
Min Aung Hlaing last week claimed the rebel groups were receiving weapons, including drones and short-range missiles, from “foreign” sources that he did not identify, according to Agence France-Presse.
Yin said some believe he was referring to the United States, which has been providing Starlink services to the rebels, but most people in Myanmar, especially those in the south, believe China has been supporting the ethnic minority groups.
Yin warned that since the military had no way to control the north militarily, they may try to rally support by promoting nationalism and anti-Chinese sentiment.
“Deep down … the Myanmar military is not a pro-China political force. It is not even as pro-China as Aung San Suu Kyi [the ousted pro-democracy leader] and others. It has always been full of suspicion and worry about China,” he said.
He suggested that at a time when “Myanmar people have a very poor perception and attitude towards China”, Wang’s visit may be designed to build trust and seek to dispel those doubts.
“So I think this time the Chinese side may have realised that it is necessary to give the military some contact and public recognition,” he said.
