China recorded a year-on-year uptick of 8.5 per cent in marriage registrations over the first three quarters of 2025, a rare piece of positive demographic news as the country’s population continues to shrink and rise in average age.
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The increase suggests that a host of recently introduced pro-marriage policies are starting to pay off, but experts cautioned the number of marriages would still decline over the long term as the pool of younger adults dwindles.
A total of 5.15 million couples registered for marriage in the first nine months of the year, according to data released by China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs on Tuesday, compared with 4.75 million during the same period last year. The number of divorces also rose slightly to 2.08 million, up from 1.97 million a year earlier.
This data is closely watched in China, as historically there has been a strong link between the numbers of marriages and births, with extramarital births still considered taboo in many parts of the country.
Marriage registrations have plummeted over the past decade in China, driven by a diminishing cohort of younger couples, economic pressures and shifting social attitudes towards the practice. Last year, China recorded the lowest number of new marriages since 1980, with only 6.1 million couples tying the knot – a 20.5 per cent drop from 2023, official data showed.
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But the country is now on track to record up to a 17.3 per cent year-on-year rise in marriages for the whole of 2025, with between 6.52 million and 7.16 million couples taking the plunge, according to an estimate by He Yafu, an independent demographer based in China’s southern Guangdong province.
A major driver of the uptick, He said, has been China’s revision of marriage registration regulations in May, which allowed couples to register their marriage anywhere in the country without needing to present their household registration booklet, or hukou.