China’s export growth hits 27-month high, but Trump win clouds outlook

China’s exports hit a 27-month high in October, as exporters rushed to front-load orders, but the trade outlook remains uncertain ahead of president-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming return to the White House, analysts said.

Exports rose by 12.7 per cent year on year to US$309 billion in October, according to customs data released on Thursday.

The figure was significantly higher than the expected 5.5 per cent increase surveyed by Chinese financial data provider Wind, and exceeded the 2.4 per cent rise recorded in September.

But the world’s second-largest economy could face greater shock if Trump extends tariffs from made-in-China to made-by-China when he takes office in January, analysts said.

“China’s export data reflect the improving global demand from lower interest rates and some front-loading demand,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis.

Trump’s victory over Vice-President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has heightened concerns among Chinese exporters, as his expected trade policies toward China – including potential tariffs of 60 per cent – add uncertainties to its trade outlook.