Beijing may be less likely to enact aggressive fiscal stimulus measures in the coming quarter, analysts said, as April’s macroeconomic data has proven China’s economic resilience against US tariff headwinds.
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Major investment banks have already raised their growth outlook for the world’s second-largest economy after a 90-day tariff truce with the United States and a supportive policy package announced by China’s central bank this month.
“The economic growth slowed in April compared with the first quarter, but not by much,” said Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist at Standard Chartered Bank.
China’s industrial output grew by 6.1 per cent from a year earlier in April, marking a slight deceleration from 6.5 per cent recorded in the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. However, the reading was higher than the 5.21 per cent growth forecast polled by financial data provider Wind.
China’s retail sales increased by 5.1 per cent during the same period, up from 4.6 per cent in the first quarter, while overall fixed-asset investment rose by 4 per cent in the first four months of 2025 – compared with a rise of 4.2 per cent for the period from January to March.
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The country’s exports beat market expectations in April, growing by 8.1 per cent, year on year, to US$315.69 billion – despite the impact of tariffs from the US.
Unless there are new disruptions or unexpected events, the likelihood of introducing additional stimulus will be much lower