China not likely to use navy to secure Hormuz Strait, analyst says

China is highly unlikely to use its navy to secure the vital Strait of Hormuz if Iran threatens to close it as Middle East tensions rise, a top US analyst told reporters Monday.

Although China depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil, its approach would be shaped by quiet negotiations and self-interest, not direct military intervention, Richard Fontaine, chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank, said.

Fontaine spoke at a CNAS press briefing on the consequences of US and Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which have raised Middle Eastern tensions and prompted fears Tehran could try to block the channel for roughly 20 per cent of world oil shipments.

He pointed to attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in the Red Sea last year, when Beijing reached an agreement with the group to spare Chinese-flagged vessels.

“China acted, but it just cut a separate deal with the Houthis,” Fontaine said. Its focus, he added, was “protecting its own interests” rather than policing global waterways.

Although about 16 per cent of China’s seaborne crude came from Iran in early 2025, CNAS analysts said its approach would remain shaped by long-standing economic interests.