With China’s population expected to shrink over the next decade, an official publication has said an average annual economic growth rate of 4.17 per cent would be necessary to meet a headline target for long-term development by 2035 – providing greater clarity for what the government considers a success as it works to achieve the long-range benchmark.
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The latest proposals for the country’s next five-year plan – unveiled by the Communist Party’s Central Committee last month – do not specify benchmarks for average annual gross domestic product growth between 2026 and 2030, saying instead that the aim is to “maintain growth at a reasonable level”, echoing the phrasing of the current plan, the country’s 14th.
However, in an explanatory book released last week that offers a detailed interpretation of the proposals, party authorities revealed the growth rate they calculated would enable China to become a “moderately developed country” in terms of per capita GDP by 2035, a goal first articulated in 2020 with the proposals for the 14th plan.
At the time of its introduction, the criteria for what constituted a “moderately developed” country lacked an existing global benchmark. Now, the book said, a clearer standard will help “scientifically set” future growth targets.
The publication, an official study guide for the party committee’s proposal document, said current consensus is that the per capita GDP threshold should be set at around US$20,000, because the 39 economies classified as “developed” by the International Monetary Fund in 2020 generally had levels above that at the time.
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Based on this US$20,000 figure – around twice China’s per capita GDP in 2020 – and considering that the country’s population is expected to decrease by about 0.2 per cent a year for the next decade, the book said China’s GDP needs to grow at an average annual rate of 4.17 per cent to reach that level by 2035.