Even in the face of threats by US President Donald Trump to levy tariffs on countries that import Russian goods, analysts expect that China “will not stop” buying oil from its northern neighbour, given their mutually beneficial relationship of energy cooperation.
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Oil from Russia will continue to flow south over the long run because “China’s strategic goals require a stable and secure supply of critical resources such as oil”, said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research in Canada.
His comments came with Trump sharpening his threat of sanctions on Russia if it fails to engage in a ceasefire in Ukraine, where Moscow has waged war for the last three and a half years.
Previously, both the United States and the European Union announced blanket sanctions on Russia, and they also tried to cut off its lifelines by threatening secondary sanctions on those helping it.
“The US said at the time that it would implement those [tariff] threats by August 7-9 if trade with Russia was not curtailed by then, and affirmed that China would be a target,” Gertken added. “The US has already taken action on India, so China is next in line.”
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Russia is China’s top source of crude imports, supplying a record high 108.5 million tonnes, or 19.6 per cent of its total imports, last year.
Guo Jiakun, spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a press conference last week that “China will take energy supply measures … based on national interests”, while “tariff wars have no winners”.