China has brokered another ceasefire in Myanmar civil war. But will it hold?

The latest China-brokered truce in Myanmar’s civil war is likely to hold for now but lasting peace may still be a pipe dream, according to observers.

Myanmar’s military government and a major northeastern ethnic rebel group agreed to a ceasefire this month in the Chinese border city of Kunming – the second such pact to be signed there in just over a year.

The agreement between the incumbent junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) took effect on January 18, China’s foreign ministry announced last Monday.

The MNDAA, made up of the ethnic Chinese Kokang minority, is part of Myanmar’s “Three Brotherhood Alliance” rebel coalition.

China shares a 2,000km (1,242-mile) border with Myanmar, and shares close ties with both the junta and rebel groups. Beijing has been deeply involved in mediation as the fighting impacts border stability and disrupts trade, and puts its substantial infrastructure investment in Myanmar at risk.

In early January last year, the two sides signed their first ceasefire in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan – the southwestern Chinese province bordering Myanmar. But the deal fell apart within six months.