China exports surge, but trade war escalation looms: 5 takeaways from October trade data

1. Exports post fastest growth since July 2022

China’s exports beat expectations and hit a 27-month high in October after rising by 12.7 per cent, year on year, to US$309 billion.

“Export values grew, year on year, at the fastest pace in more than two years, and export volumes picked up too,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

But Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said the better-than-expected export growth “may partly be driven by exporters trying to front-load shipments to mitigate the damage” they expect next year from potential trade war repercussions.

US president-elect Donald Trump has hinted at potential tariffs of 60 per cent on shipments from China.

Tariffs from the European Union on Chinese-made electric vehicles also started at the end of October.

“Despite mounting trade barriers, Chinese exports continued to defy gravity,” said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore.