The civil war in Burma has intensified this year despite efforts by Beijing to exert its influence on both the Burmese junta and rebel groups.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has been holding live ammunition drills and armed patrols in west Yunnan Province near the China–Burma border as a civil war escalates in the neighboring country.
The Chinese Communist Party’s Southern Theater Command is holding a three-day joint exercise that started Aug. 27, according to a statement posted on its official WeChat account.
The same command had conducted border armed patrols and joint-air ground police patrols in Yunnan’s Ruili and Zhenkang counties near Burma, also known as Myanmar, since Aug. 26.
Intensified Conflict
The civil war in Burma has intensified this year despite efforts by Beijing to exert its influence on both the Burmese military junta and rebel groups to maintain the stability of China’s economic interests in the Southeast Asian nation.
In early January, a shell fired from Burma landed on Nanshan, a border town in Yunnan Province, injuring five Chinese citizens. Later that month, the Burmese military junta and three local ethnic armed groups in northern Burma—the Kokang, Ta’ang, and Arakan, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance—reached a cease-fire agreement with Beijing’s mediation.
However, fighting between the Burmese military and the Arakan Army broke out again in Rakhine State in April, proving Beijing’s mediation ineffective.
In June, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army of the Three Brothers Alliance, with the support of local armed forces, renewed its attacks on junta strongholds in northeastern Shan State and the adjacent Mandalay region, which borders China, Laos, and Thailand.
With these developments, the cease-fire agreement completely collapsed, and the civil war in the country has intensified since July.
Min Aung Hlaing, the Burmese army general who has ruled the country since the February 2021 coup, has accused unnamed foreign forces of providing weapons, technology, and other assistance to Burma’s various rebel groups. He was referring in part to China, which has long had close ties with ethnic rebel groups in China–Burma border areas.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) denied any involvement in Burma’s civil war when its foreign minister, Wang Yi, visited the country on Aug. 14.
Geopolitical and Economic Motives
Sun Kuo-hsiang, a professor of international affairs and business at Taiwan’s Nanhua University, told The Epoch Times on Aug. 27 that the probability that Beijing will send troops into Burma is low.
“Sending boots on the ground to Burma will attract international attention and may drag China into larger regional conflicts, which is not in line with Beijing’s strategic interests,” he said.
He said that the CCP is more likely to influence the situation in Burma and protect its interests by providing intelligence, logistical support, and even secret military assistance to whatever side it would prefer to see win.
In addition, “the CCP is trying to play the role of a ‘stabilizer’ in the situation in Burma to ensure that the nation does not lean toward Western countries for the CCP’s geopolitical interest,” Sun said.
China is Burma’s largest investor, and among its projects is the strategically important China–Myanmar Economic Corridor, which includes energy pipelines and large-scale infrastructure construction.
Chung Chih-tung, an assistant research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times on Aug. 27 that the CCP’s military activities near the border were an opportunity to train troops and a demonstration of its ability and willingness to intervene in the Burma civil war militarily.
But Chung said that unless the entire situation in Burma is completely uncontrollable and Western countries intervene, “sending troops to join Burma’s civil war is the last resort for the CCP.”
Playing Different Sides
Sun pointed out that the CCP is playing a balancing act within Burma.
“It has a long-term cooperative relationship with the Burmese military government, and at the same time, it maintains contact with ethnic rebel groups in northern Burma, such as the Kokang and the Ta’ang,” he said.
Chung said that Beijing still supports the Burmese military government, but it also needs to strike a balance.
“Whether it is the rebels or the military government, if they all rely on Beijing’s support, it can demonstrate Beijing’s dominance in Burma,” he said.
Sun said that the international community had taken some measures to support Burma’s democratization and counter the CCP’s influence, but the effect was limited because of Beijing’s impediments. Moscow, a key ally of Beijing, has also long supported Burma’s junta.
“China and Russia have always opposed sanctions against Burma’s military regime in the U.N. Security Council and other international organizations,” Sun said.
“The Myanmar military government relies on the CCP’s economic and diplomatic support to maintain its rule.”
Chung agrees that the West has limited influence over Burma compared with the CCP’s dominance, adding that Burma’s democratization is not conducive to its control over the nation.
“The CCP will continue to support the Burmese military dictatorship, which is easier to control,” he said.
Luo Ya contributed to this report.