Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific Airways’ cargo business faces a sharp decline in China-US e-commerce volumes, as well as grappling with chartered flight cancellations and falling freight spot rates, but the airline’s full-year profits could be cushioned by lower jet fuel costs, according to a research report.
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The report, which was published by HSBC on Wednesday, also said the company’s cargo business would contend with significant headwinds as a result of Sino-US trade tensions, citing another report from freight forwarder Dimerco Express.
The document from Dimerco Express showed a 50 per cent drop in e-commerce volumes year on year from China since mid-April, as many companies were halting direct shipments to the United States.
The HSBC report wrote: “We think the air freight market in 2025 is characterised by significant uncertainties due to geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes and shifting trade patterns.
“As a result, [Dimerco] saw several chartered cargo flights from mainland China cancelled since late April, with further cancellations anticipated in the coming weeks.
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“Air freight capacity withdrawn is being shifted to destinations such as Mexico and other parts of Latin America, where demand has gone up.”