China’s soybean imports – which became deeply ingrained in the US-China trade war during Donald Trump’s first presidential term – hit a record high of 105 million tonnes in 2024, according to customs data released on Monday.
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But most of that supply did not come from the US. And with US president-elect Trump sticking to his guns by calling for higher across-the-board tariffs after being sworn in next week, industry insiders and analysts are wondering what might become of their soybean trade.
Will China opt to rely even more on South American countries such as Brazil, and perhaps impose retaliatory tariffs on US soybean imports, or could China once again vow to increase its soybean purchases from US farmers to reach a new trade agreement?
“Soybeans are a crucial trade product between China and the US, highlighting how interdependent the two countries are,” said Zhang Xiaoping, Greater China director for the US Soybean Export Council, an agricultural lobby group.
“As one of the US’ top exports, its soybeans are known for their high quality and steady supply, while China’s demand remains strong. This makes the soybean trade vital for both governments.”
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Even though a full-year breakdown of China’s soybean trade data was not immediately provided, January-November data showed that Brazilian exporters held a nearly 74 per cent share, or 71.7 million tonnes. In comparison, the US share dropped to a years-low 18.4 per cent, while the volume also dropped to 17.8 million tonnes from 19.6 million tonnes during the same 11-month period in 2023.