Can Thailand, Cambodia’s Asean-led peace deal hold or will history repeat?

The latest peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand will be difficult to uphold, according to analysts, who point to previous ceasefire breaches, as they call for a regional observer team to be enlarged to include more military officials.

Analysts also note the “conspicuous absence” of China from the arrangement despite its aspirations to be a major regional player.

On Sunday, United States President Donald Trump presided over the deal between Thailand and Cambodia in Malaysia’s capital, as part of his first trip to the region under his second term to attend the Asean summit.

Known as the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords, the agreement calls for a demilitarisation of the tense Thai-Cambodia border, expanding on a ceasefire deal reached in July.

It also pledged to end a long-standing border dispute, which erupted again over five days in late July, killing scores on both sides.

At a ceremony with the Thai and Cambodian leaders by his side, Trump, who has touted himself as a global truce-broker, said the agreement showed his administration’s pursuit of peace “in every region where we can do it”.

Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a researcher at the Australian National University, voiced scepticism over the deal, citing the “shaky” previous ceasefire, when there were tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border and Cambodian villagers clashed with Thai security forces.