Can China top the US economically by 2030? Economist reaffirms bold 1994 prediction

China’s economy remains on track to surpass that of the United States within five to 10 years, prominent Chinese economist Justin Lin Yifu has said, reaffirming a bold prediction he made 31 years ago.

Speaking at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong on Monday, Lin, who served as the World Bank’s chief economist and senior vice-president from 2008-12, contended that while China’s annual gross domestic product growth has slowed, America’s economic growth rate has also decelerated.

“I believe, under normal circumstances, the forecast that China’s economy will surpass that of the US by 2030 – or by 2035 at the latest – based on market exchange rates, should remain unchanged,” said Lin, who is now an economics professor at Peking University.

Lin’s assessment came hours before US President Joe Biden derided China’s economic growth prospects.

“When I took office, you all recall, and the experts believed … it was inevitable that China’s economy would surpass ours. According to many predictions that would happen by the year 2030 or shortly thereafter,” Biden said in his farewell speech on Monday, adding: “Now, according to the latest predictions, on China’s current course, they will never surpass us.”

When Lin wrote The China Miracle in 1994, China’s economic growth was more than 13 per cent, and it reached 14.2 per cent in 2007 before gradually declining and remaining in the single-digit range since dipping to 9.6 per cent in 2011.

  

​Read More