China and Russia’s bid to hold up the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a counterweight to the West has sparked concerns that Beijing’s economic scale might overshadow Moscow’s agenda for Central Asia, long considered a Russian “backyard”.
However, observers expect Russia to focus more on cooperation than rivalry with China, given common security concerns in the Eurasian hinterland and Moscow’s eastward economic shift after its invasion of Ukraine.
The annual SCO summit earlier this week in Kazakhstan was attended by the leaders of both countries. Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin also met on the sidelines of the event, their fifth talks in person this year.
Bilateral ties had entered “a golden period” built on “the principles of equality, mutual benefit”, Putin told Xi during Wednesday’s meeting as he hailed the growing importance of the Shanghai alliance.
“The [SCO] has firmly established itself as one of the key pillars of a fair, multipolar world order,” he said.
Zeno Leoni, a lecturer in the defence studies department of King’s College London, said that while Russia and China had not always seen eye to eye on the SCO’s role, they were working together to build it up as a force to counter Western “hegemony”.
“Beijing and Moscow tend to both compete and cooperate, on different levels … unity within the SCO is currently the priority, so in this regard they cooperate,” Leoni said.
“China and Russia are progressively moving in the direction of an Eurasian bloc, albeit this will be no way near the level of integration that there is in the West.”
According to Leoni, China and Russia would also make use of the SCO to maintain regime stability in Central Asia, which is vital to both.
Formally set up with China, Russia and four former Soviet states in 2001, the SCO’s original aim was to resolve border issues in Central Asia following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But its functions have since expanded beyond security issues to industrial chain security, economic cooperation, and people-to-people exchanges. The now 10-member group has also come to be largely led by Beijing, with Central Asia a major link in China’s transcontinental Belt and Road Initiative.
The SCO’s annual rotating presidency passed to China following the summit in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana, where Belarus was inducted as a 10th member.
Apart from Central Asian members Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the group also includes India, Iran and Pakistan.
Wan Qingsong, an associate professor at the Centre for Russian Studies at East China Normal University, said the summit had “bolstered the SCO’s ability to handle major global economic and financial crises, and its capacity to deal with global, particularly Eurasian, geopolitical changes”.
“But of course, [China] will need to strengthen its coordination with Russia in these areas,” Wan said.
He added that if there were differences in priorities, “such as Russia’s focus on security and China’s emphasis on development”, these concerns “are now increasingly intertwined and need to be carefully managed” by both countries.
“We can see that the two sides did not bring their differences to the SCO summit agenda,” Wan said.
Temur Umarov, a Berlin-based fellow of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, also said that Chinese and Russian concerns about security in Central Asia were driving the continued cooperation.
“Moscow understands that with Beijing, it shares much more in common when it comes to security … in Central Asia,” Umarov said.
After a terror attack in a Moscow concert hall killed nearly 150 people in March, Russia said Tajik citizens financed by an Islamic State branch active in Afghanistan and Pakistan had claimed responsibility.
According to the United Nations, Islamic State in Afghanistan launched a major recruitment drive last year among militants in Tajikistan and other Central Asian countries, sparking concerns over terrorism spillovers in the wider region.
China has long been concerned about terrorism and separatism in Xinjiang, its western region sharing a 5,600km (3480-mile) border with countries including Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and the two hotbeds of regional terrorism – Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In his speech at the Astana summit, Xi highlighted the Afghan security issue as he vowed to put the Taliban-ruled country on the “path towards peaceful reconstruction”.
But Leoni at King’s College said China’s economic prowess could “cause friction” with Russia within the SCO.
“China’s overwhelming might [could] undermine Russia’s plans for an Eurasian Economic Union (EEU),” he said, referring to Moscow’s efforts to create a common market akin to the European Union.
The concerns include China’s growing economic dominance in Central Asia, Moscow’s traditional sphere of influence, as Western economic sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war prompt a reality check among the ex-Soviet states.
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Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin hold talks on SCO sidelines in Kazakhstan
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin hold talks on SCO sidelines in Kazakhstan
Last year, China overtook Russia to become Kazakhstan’s biggest trading partner. And in 2022 it was responsible for nearly all of the foreign direct investment in Tajikistan, according to official US estimates.
But according to Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Beijing’s Renmin University, sanctions-hit Russia is adjusting its strategy away from competing with China as it becomes increasingly reliant on the Chinese economy.
“Russia is looking more and more to the East economically, and it wants to leverage China’s influence to safeguard its interests [in the region],” Wang said.
In the latest signal of Russia’s changing attitude, deputy prime minister Alexey Overchuk said in April that the two countries were looking to improve connectivity between the belt and road and the Moscow-led EEU.
But Russia’s closeness to two of China’s neighbours – North Korea and India – have raised a few eyebrows.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was a significant absentee at the Astana summit but will travel to Moscow next week, highlighting regional priorities.
And last month, Putin became the first Russian leader to visit North Korea in 24 years. He also signed a pact with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that included a vow for mutual aid if either country was attacked.
But Leoni dismissed the idea that Putin’s moves might be directed at China. “[That] would be incoherent and going against recent trends, such as the development of an increasingly closer relationship between Moscow and Beijing.”
