A sweeping review by the United States of the landmark Aukus submarine pact could usher in stricter conditions on technology transfers, cost-sharing and fresh concessions from Australia, raising questions about the future of the trilateral deal.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had privately assured Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles that the pact would not be terminated, The Washington Post reported earlier this month, citing sources familiar with the discussions.
The Aukus agreement, unveiled in 2021 by Australia, Britain and the United States to counter China’s expanding naval influence, would enable Canberra to acquire at least eight nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines from the 2030s.
Valued at US$240 billion, the deal would elevate Australia into the select ranks of nations with nuclear-powered underwater strike capability.
Washington launched a review of Aukus in June, seeking to ensure its alignment with US President Donald Trump’s “America first” agenda, prompting concerns that his administration might abandon or significantly alter the deal.
But Rubio’s assurances suggest the review is more likely to result in recalibration – including tighter safeguards on technology transfer and cost-sharing – than outright cancellation, according to Troy Lee-Brown, a research fellow at the University of Western Australia’s Defence and Security Institute.