Asean risks a fresh blow to its already dented credibility if it fails to de-escalate tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, analysts have warned, as a deadly border skirmish and a political leak threaten to trigger broader regional fallout.
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“A full-blown border war between Thailand and Cambodia will damage Asean’s credibility,” Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia programme, told This Week in Asia. “The regional organisation is already under fire for being perceived as not effective in dealing with the Myanmar crisis.”
Since its founding in 1967, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has been credited with helping avoid conflict among its members. But that legacy now faces a critical test, observers say, amid a weeks-long stand-off following a May 28 clash that left one Cambodian soldier dead – the first fatal border flare-up since 2011.
Tensions intensified after a phone call between Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen leaked on Wednesday, revealing informal efforts to calm the situation. In the recording, Paetongtarn referred to Hun Sen as “uncle” and urged him to disregard a Thai military commander, saying: “He just wants to look cool … but in truth what we want is peace.”
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Thai government hangs by thread as leaked phone call shreds PM Paetongtarn’s credibility
Thai government hangs by thread as leaked phone call shreds PM Paetongtarn’s credibility
The leak triggered political backlash in Thailand, where critics accused Paetongtarn of undermining the military and appearing overly deferential to Hun Sen. The uproar led to the withdrawal of a key coalition partner and intensified scrutiny of the Shinawatra family’s close personal ties with Cambodia’s ruling elite.
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Paetongtarn later defended the call as part of a negotiation tactic but apologised for the resulting “public resentment”.