The new era of great power rivalry is marked by increasing fragmentation between and within states. The outcome of Germany’s recent election provides a sobering example.
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The fracturing across Germany’s political spectrum is reflective of a broader fracturing across the European Union and the EU’s relations with the US, its strongest traditional ally and decades-long security guarantor. The growing concern of the US possibly retreating from Europe, as well as an advancing Russia, has shifted the bloc into overdrive on developing greater defence capabilities and autonomy.
Germany’s Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz assumes power at this critical historic crossroads. As Germany is the world’s third-largest economy and the largest in Europe, Merz’s eventual decisions and actions will shape the futures of his nation and Europe for the next quarter century, and potentially beyond.
However, a key question is whether the EU will actually survive, or perhaps transform, in its current state. The bloc is less stable internally and externally without strong German leadership. It has suffered from a leadership deficit in recent years, particularly since Chancellor Olaf Scholz took office and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.
Despite expressions of unity and massive sums spent in supporting Ukraine, the traditional Franco-German axis driving the EU largely ran out of steam under a rudderless Scholz and quixotic French President Emmanuel Macron. The duo and other select leaders were rhetorically promoting a new Europe in theory while dithering in practice in a rapidly changing world.
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Scholz’s futile attempt to extend the era of centrism after former chancellor Angela Merkel’s 16-year reign resulted in the Social Democrats’ worst electoral performance since World War II. As for Macron, despite his self-inflicted erosion of power at home with a reckless snap election in 2024, he can still act firmly in foreign policy until his term’s end in 2027.