Russia won’t be the only state delighted by the disastrous meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. North Korea – given its status as a direct party to the conflict in Ukraine – is likely very pleased with the colossal collapse of talks between Washington and Kyiv.
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Dismissing Zelensky as being “not ready for peace”, the US president may now choose to double down on negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin instead to try to end the war.
At first glance, an end to the war may seem like bad news for North Korea, but Pyongyang could make significant gains if Trump prioritised talks with Russia. A favourable outcome for Russia, especially, could indicate to Pyongyang the potential for a similar diplomatic breakthrough with the US.
Moreover, even if the fighting in Ukraine ends, North Korean soldiers and personnel could remain in Russia for further training, even used as mercenaries, especially in covert operations.
North Korea is also likely to continue sending labourers to work at construction sites in Russia. According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Agency, Russian demand for such workers remains high, with 13,000 North Koreans entering Russia last year, a 12-fold jump from 2023. This trend is likely to continue whether or not the Ukraine conflict ends. Arms deals could also continue as the war has depleted Russia’s stockpiles.
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The full heated argument between Zelensky, Trump and Vance
The full heated argument between Zelensky, Trump and Vance
Indeed, the North Korea-Russia alliance could thrive if Putin negotiates a favourable agreement with Trump. Since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s primary goal is to obtain security guarantees from the US, he will be watching the Washington-Moscow negotiations closely.