US President Donald Trump is expected to take a far more aggressive approach in the Indo-Pacific than the Biden administration as America strengthens ties with Australia and Japan.
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Australia is deepening its security ties with the United States through the Aukus alliance (which includes Britain) and critical minerals agreements, while balancing its economic reliance on China. The US remains Australia’s largest investor and demand for Australian rare earths is growing parallel to China’s market dominance.
But Trump’s return brings economic protectionism, with potential tariffs that could strain trade. Despite these challenges, long-standing intelligence-sharing and military cooperation, including the joint defence facility at Pine Gap, keep the alliance strong.
Likewise, for years, Japan has been America’s top investor and plans to boost investment to US$1 trillion. It is also increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the US while maintaining a careful approach to trade disputes. India, meanwhile, is set to receive billions in US weapons, including potential F-35 stealth jets, as part of a growing defence partnership.
These developments reflect America’s focus on strengthening alliances in the Indo-Pacific while countering China’s influence, as security alliances such as Aukus and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue gain more momentum under Trump than under Biden.
Though the Quad was revived by Trump in November 2017, its fading momentum reflected Biden’s failure to turn diplomacy into strategic influence. Biden’s decision to skip the 2023 Sydney summit exposed the alliance’s weaknesses. During Biden’s tenure, despite being outlined as a counterweight to China, the Quad struggled to unify.