With Donald Trump assuming office for a second term, the Korean peninsula once again finds itself at the crossroads of diplomacy and confrontation. Marred by growing uncertainties and tensions, recent US-North Korea relations can be best defined as at a cul-de-sac.
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The Biden administration’s strategy of pressuring Pyongyang into negotiations has failed. If the significant breakthroughs and agonising stalemates reached in Trump’s first term were to serve as an indication, a move away from Biden’s cautious approach seems to be on the cards.
As Washington recalibrates its foreign policy to navigate a changing world, Pyongyang remains a volatile flashpoint, with the spectre of renewed brinkmanship looming over the Korean peninsula.
In his first term, President Trump’s approach of a “grand bargain” oscillated between threats of retribution and negotiations. Unprecedented meetings with Kim Jong-un brought the US and North Korea face-to-face in negotiations, though they failed to yield any concrete results. While the offer of lifting sanctions in exchange for nuclear weapons led to the Singapore and Hanoi summits, ultimately the talks fell through due to differences in the terms of negotiations.
The Trump administration upheld and increased economic sanctions, using them to pressure Pyongyang into making concessions, even while it eschewed direct military action. In the end, Trump’s approach to North Korea veered between high-stakes negotiations and coercive pressure.
Trump’s second term is likely to be a continuation of old ways. He has indicated a close relationship with Kim and claims he plans to reach out. But given the fiery rhetoric of Trump’s foreign policy and North Korea’s changing assessments, relations are unlikely to be smooth sailing.