As Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba heads to Washington this week, he faces a tall order: charm US President Donald Trump, stave off looming tariffs, and protect Japan’s fragile economy – all while his own political career teeters on the edge.
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Ishiba’s visit from Friday comes with promises of trade deals, increased defence spending and an invitation for Trump to make a state visit to Japan later this year, but experts warn that Trump’s “America First” agenda is likely to overshadow any goodwill.
The US president is expected to press Ishiba to increase defence spending further and may threaten tariffs unless Japanese firms expand manufacturing facilities in the United States.
“Trump likes winners and strong leaders,” said Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international relations at Tokyo’s International Christian University. “He is going to find Ishiba underwhelming.”
Already viewed as a weak leader domestically, Ishiba faces mounting criticism that he lacks the political clout to counter Trump’s aggressive protectionist policies. “Ishiba has no political capital in the US, where he is seen as a leader on the way out,” Nagy added. “I’m not at all confident that Ishiba is equipped to face Trump.”
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Japanese businesses are watching nervously, fearing that Trump’s penchant for economic brinkmanship could upend the fragile trade relationship between the two countries. Trump has already delayed imposing 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports but has signalled that no country – including Japan – is safe from his trade-war tactics.