A month after South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s astonishing decision to impose martial law, the country is still deep in political turmoil. But if the opposition Minjoo (Democratic) Party ends up taking power, analysts say it could lead to closer ties between Seoul and Beijing.
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On December 3, in a televised address, Yoon shocked the nation by declaring martial law. While the move only lasted a few hours, the political aftershocks are still being felt.
On December 14, parliament voted to impeach Yoon and his presidential powers were suspended and police subsequently tried, and failed, to arrest him, triggering a dramatic stand-off with his security detail in the presidential compound.
His impeachment case is still pending in South Korea’s constitutional court – a process that could last six months. If the court decides to dismiss Yoon at that point, a general election will be held within two months.
Although, in theory, Yoon could be reinstated, discussion in the country has now shifted to who could be the next president. And signs are pointing to Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, with a Gallup poll last month making him the front runner.
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“If the Democratic Party takes power, South Korea-China relations will get better,” Kang Jun-young, a professor of Chinese studies at Seoul’s Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said. “Seoul will pursue relations with the US on the one hand, and restore South Korea-China relations on the other.”