China’s ties with Syria are being tested by the sudden downfall of Beijing-friendly Bashar al-Assad, but analysts predict China and the new government in Damascus will take a pragmatic approach to cooperation and investment.
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Syrian rebel forces captured Damascus on Sunday after a two-week lightning offensive. Assad’s government passed power to the rebels, led by militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), through Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali. The ousted president and his family have been given asylum in Moscow, according to Russian media.
The swift regime change came one year after Assad made a high-profile visit to China. The trip, which included a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, was widely seen as a sign of Beijing’s continued support for his rule.
China and Russia, both permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, repeatedly vetoed resolutions to impose sanctions on Assad over the course of Syria’s decade-long civil war, but unlike Moscow and Tehran, Beijing has denied any direct military involvement in the conflict.
Fan Hongda, a professor at the Shanghai International Studies University’s Middle East Studies Institute, said the new government’s attitude towards China would “certainly be less favourable to China than the Assad government”.
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Although it is currently unknown if the new government will align with the United States or Turkey, “it is nearly sure that the rebels will not fall back on Russia and Iran, or China”, he added.