With Donald Trump returning to the White House, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will confront a difficult reality given its increasingly close ties with China. Trump is expected to be even more hawkish towards Beijing and demand that US partners limit relations with China. This will test the strength of Washington’s relationship with GCC countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
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Since Trump last left office, the council has grown closer to China, which has increased investments in member countries. More profoundly, regional confidence in US power is in decline. US support was unable to deter Houthi militia attacks on Saudi Arabian oilfields amid Riyadh’s war in Yemen.
Trump will want to improve US standing in the region on a transactional basis. This approach worked during his first administration when Saudi Arabia bought US weapons for a whopping US$110 billion. Saudi Arabia was also the first country Trump visited the last time he was president.
This time around, Saudi Arabia and the UAE must strike a delicate balance between the US and China. The primary focus will be on technology, security and finance. The US could be worried that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are growing reliant on Chinese tech, especially in artificial intelligence and infrastructure projects. Under American pressure, the UAE chose to partner with the US on AI in September. The trend is likely to continue.
Concerning politics, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were both invited to join Brics. The UAE later joined the grouping. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia was promoted to the status of dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The spread of China-led multilateral initiatives in the region constitutes a major dilemma for the next US administration. The Trump administration will surely attempt to outpace its Chinese competitor.
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However, Gulf Cooperation Council member countries are in a different place than where they were four years ago. The Gulf states pursue a multi-vector foreign policy which allows for curtailing their dependence on any single major actor. During Trump 2.0, the council will keep working with China and the US but relations will be highly transactional. Areas of China-GCC cooperation that the US is not concerned with will be further expanded.
