China to unveil fiscal stimulus plans on Friday, may hold fire until early 2025: analysts

With eyes shifting from Washington as more specifics on China’s “quite a large scale” fiscal stimulus would likely be unveiled on Friday, economists said Beijing is in no position to surprise the market with astronomical figures or a new policy bazooka.

China’s top legislative body, the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, is set to conclude its week-long session just days after Donald Trump was confirmed as the next president of the United States.

So far, only one bill covering local debt swap has been officially announced as having been reviewed.

The one-time, large-scale debt ceiling increase for local governments to swap their hidden debts was first announced by Finance Minister Lan Foan during a high-profile press conference last month.

Other policies that have “entered the decision-making stage”, according to Lan, include special sovereign bonds for capital replenishment at major banks and special local government bonds to purchase unsold housing or idle land.

At the end of last month, vice-minister of finance Liao Min had said that “the size of this round of policies will be of quite large scale,” reiterating a sentiment previously expressed by Lan.

Market estimates of the ultimate scale of the existing stimulus package range from 6 trillion yuan (US$838 billion) to over 10 trillion yuan.