Israel’s air strikes on Iran and military incursions into southern Lebanon against local Islamic militant group Hezbollah are visible defeats for US diplomacy aimed at de-escalation in the Middle East. China is getting involved, too, but it is still not a credible alternative to the United States as a mediating power in world crises.
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In separate phone calls with his Israeli and Iranian counterparts, Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently called for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and urged all sides to work for regional peace and stability. At the United Nations General Assembly in New York last month, Wang said of Russia’s war in Ukraine that “China is committed to playing a constructive role, engaging in shuttle mediation and promoting talks for peace”.
China is gaining stature on the world diplomatic stage. However, while the US is ready to take the risk of failing with its diplomatic actions, Beijing is not. The Chinese, it seems, are willing to participate in peace processes and whisper possible solutions – or, at most, facilitate talks – when actually, to play an indispensable role, they should be exerting pressure on warring parties.
It was not purely by chance that at an event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on September 24, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said that “the United States is the only country that can really make a difference in the Middle East and with regard to Lebanon”.
US President Joe Biden has called the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar an opportunity to end the war in Gaza. The US government is, with the help of Qatar and Egypt, continuing to negotiate a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas after one year of conflict, and is trying to de-escalate the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. The Biden administration has, apparently, managed to mitigate Israel’s announced retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attacks.
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Both Hamas and Hezbollah are allied with China’s friend Iran, a fact that should give Chinese diplomats room to manoeuvre. For now, that does not appear to be the case.