While many of the races are rated as safe for Republicans or Democrats, New Hampshire is seen as a true toss-up.
With the 2024 election less than two weeks away, attention is not just on Congress and the presidency, but also the executives that run each of the 50 states—governors.
As of this year, there are 23 states with Democratic governors and 27 states with Republican governors. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, both election handicappers, are tracking 11 governor races in the 2024 election, with six rated as “solid Republican,” one as “likely Republican,” one as “solid Democratic,” two as “likely Democratic,” and one as a “toss-up.”
These are the governors’ races to watch.
Solid as a Rock
The only race rated as “solid Democratic” is Delaware, where Democratic Gov. John C. Carney Jr. is term-limited and cannot seek reelection. Matt Meyer, a Democrat, is running against state Rep. Michael Ramone (R), who represents Delaware’s District 21. A recent poll from Slingshot Strategies has Meyer leading Ramone 52–25 percent.
The governor’s races rated as “solid Republican” are Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia. Incumbent Republican Govs. Greg Gianforte, of Montana, Spencer Cox, of Utah, and Phil Scott, of Vermont, are running for reelection. Their Democratic opponents are Ryan Busse, Brian King, and Esther Charlestin, respectively. Recent polls have Gianforte leading by 22 points, Cox by 28 points, and Scott by also 28 points.
Leaning One Way
The current incumbent governor of Indiana, Eric Holcomb, is term-limited. This year Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) is running against Jennifer McCormick, a Democrat. McCormick is a former Republican, holding office as the Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction from 2017 until 2021. In June of that year, she switched parties and became a Democrat.
An Oct. 5 poll from ActiVote had Braun leading McCormick by 8 points, making the race “likely Republican.”
Two races are rated “likely Democratic”—North Carolina and Washington.
In Washington, Gov. Jay Inslee, a Democrat, is not seeking reelection after assuming office in 2013 and becoming the longest-serving current governor in the country, as the state does not have term limits. Instead, Democrat Bob Ferguson, the state attorney general, is running against Republican Dave Reichert, a former state representative. Ferguson is leading Reichert by 16 points in an Oct. 20 poll from ActiVote.
North Carolina’s governor’s race has received considerable attention this year due to controversial statements from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Recently, a CNN report alleged that Robinson had described himself as a “black Nazi,” among other heavily scrutinized remarks, on an adult website more than 10 years ago. The allegations resulted in multiple staff resignations in the ensuing weeks. Robinson has denied the claims and recently sued the media company for the report.
His opponent, North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, a Democrat, is leading Robinson by between 13 and 15 percent in many recent polls.
Toss-Up
The must-watch race this year is in New Hampshire, where incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, is term-limited and cannot run for reelection. Democrat Joyce Craig, former chair of the Manchester Board of School Committee, is running against former Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
The contest is rated a “toss-up.” Democrats are looking for a pickup, but recent polls show two contrasting pictures. In some, Craig is leading by one to six points, while others have Ayotte leading by one to four points.