The presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris comes at a time of rising geopolitical tensions on multiple fronts. In the sixth report of an in-depth series, Shi Jiangtao reports on how the US election outcome could impact the future of Taiwan.
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With the race for the White House deadlocked less than a month before the election, Beijing has continued to refrain from signalling a preference for Vice-President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump to be the next US leader, or any other election-related questions.
But regardless of who wins the election, diplomatic analysts agree that Taiwan will remain the biggest thorn in bilateral ties and one of the most dangerous flashpoints in a possible conflict between Washington and Beijing.
They warn of the risks of exacerbating cross-strait tensions amid heightened uncertainty in the next four years and a challenge for the next president to strike the right balance between deterrence and reassurance, which US President Joe Biden has skilfully navigated.
While the Democratic and Republican nominees have sparred fiercely on almost everything from the economy, abortion, to climate and Ukraine, there has been a growing bipartisan consensus in Washington on the need to get tougher on China and bolster Taiwan’s defence capabilities.
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Zhiqun Zhu, a professor of international relations and director of the China Institute at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, said Beijing may not have a preference for Harris or Trump, as far as Taiwan is concerned.
Taiwan will remain the thorniest and most dangerous issue between the United States and China, no matter who occupies the White House next year