Former President Donald Trump could have an effect on this race in a battleground state.
Republican Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) are in the final stretch of their race to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.).
Sinema became an independent in 2022 after being elected as a Democrat in 2019. She announced in March that she would not seek reelection.
Lake entered the Republican Senate primary race in October 2023 and swiftly gained an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
Lake appeared at an Oct. 14 rally for Trump in Prescott Valley.
“This is the greatest president in American history,” Lake said before telling the audience that Trump was “one of the greatest leaders in human history.”
Gallego, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran who served in Iraq, was absent from Harris’s Oct. 10 rally in Chandler, Arizona.
“Arizona, let’s send him to the United States Senate,” the vice president told the crowd at her rally, drawing cheers.
Lake and Gallego faced off in an Oct. 9 televised debate. It took place on the first day of early in-person voting and mail-in voting in the state.
One day later, The Epoch Times spotted Lake supporter Susan Rosener at a voting site in Scottsdale. The Lake campaign bus was parked nearby.
Rosener wore a Lake camo hat, not to be confused with similar-looking Harris–Walz camo hats.
“Not even close,” she said with a smile when asked about the similarity.Gallego began seeking the Democratic nomination in January 2023. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, the Democrat to whom Lake lost in 2022, endorsed him in March, soon after Sinema revealed that she was not in contention.
The two politicians won their primaries in late July.
The Cook Political Report rates Arizona’s race “Lean D,” as does political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. Interest in the contest has been amplified by the state’s position as a battleground.
For much of the past few months, fundraising and polling have suggested that Lake has an uphill climb.
Federal elections data show Gallego had raised more than $32 million as of July. In early October, his campaign announced he took in almost $22 million in the third quarter alone.
As of late September, Lake’s campaign had raised a little more than $10.4 million.
Recent polls have shown Gallego leading Lake by up to 13 points.
Some recent numbers hint that the race may be tightening. A recent survey from the Trafalgar Group shows Gallego ahead by nearly 4 points.
The presidential contest could also affect the outcome. A strong performance from Trump could push Lake over the edge. The same is the case with Harris and Gallego.
As of Oct. 14, FiveThirtyEight’s presidential average for Arizona shows the former president leading the current vice president by 1.5 percent. RealClearPolling’s average has Trump 1.1 points ahead of Harris as of that same date. Election predictions market Polymarket gives Trump a 68 percent chance of capturing the state.
Some constitutional amendments on the November ballot could also have an impact.
One is Proposition 139, which would create “a fundamental right to an abortion” in the state and restrain the state from interfering with that right before the point of viability. It would also permit abortions past viability “when necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant individual.”
Another is Proposition 314, aimed at addressing illegal immigration and reducing the flow of fentanyl into the state.
It establishes a new state-level crime for fentanyl sales that result in another person’s death.
The proposed legislation also targets illegal immigrants who do not enter the country through designated ports of entry, who use fraudulent information to seek public benefits or employment, and who defy court orders to return to their countries of origin.