Kim Jong Un may no longer trust China to represent his interests and sees Moscow as a better partner for advancing his nuclear ambitions, experts say.
Analysis
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has announced an acceleration of his nuclear weapons program amid strengthening ties with Russia. Experts say this move signals Pyongyang and Moscow’s common interest in a strong pushback to the West, and Kim’s growing impatience with China’s longer-term “unrestricted warfare” strategy to infiltrate and subvert the West.
As Beijing grapples with economic troubles and seeks to avoid further strains in U.S.-China relations, North Korea and Russia appear eager to adopt a tougher stance. Kim may no longer trust China to represent his interests and sees Moscow as a better partner for advancing his nuclear ambitions, potentially reshaping regional alliances in East Asia, according to experts.
On Oct. 8, Kim warned via state news agency Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) that if threatened, North Korea would use all offensive power “without hesitation,” including nuclear weapons.
This development comes amid reports that North Korean soldiers are fighting alongside Russian troops in Ukraine. South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun informed the country’s lawmakers that it is “highly likely” North Korean officers and soldiers were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk on Oct. 3. He added that there is a high possibility North Korea could deploy more troops to support Russia’s war effort.
U.S.-based China expert Nathan Su said North Korea’s alignment with Russia could lead to a more direct confrontation with the United States and its allies.
“Russia and North Korea hope to adopt a tougher stance against the United States and the Western world. On the other hand, the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] wishes to continue using its so-called unrestricted warfare approach to infiltrate and subvert Western countries,” he told The Epoch Times, referring to strategies involving economic, financial, and cultural influence.
“Xi Jinping needs time [and] because he needs time, he’s playing [the slow game] with the West. However, Kim Jong Un and Putin are growing impatient with Xi Jinping’s approach,” Su added.
Strengthening Ties with Russia
North Korea’s growing collaboration with Russia marks a significant shift in regional dynamics. By building closer relations with Moscow, Pyongyang appears to seek greater autonomy by diversifying its international partnerships and reducing its heavy reliance on its traditional ally, Beijing, which currently accounts for more than 90 percent of North Korea’s trade.
On Oct. 7, Kim sent a birthday message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling him his “closest comrade” and expressing confidence that “strategic and cooperative relations” between the two countries will reach a new level.
In June, Kim and Putin adopted a comprehensive strategic partnership that includes a mutual defense pact, formalizing months of growing cooperation in times of great need for both countries.
Reports suggest that North Korea has supplied Russia with substantial military support to keep its war in Ukraine going, as Russia faces dwindling equipment stockpiles and worsening labor shortages.
In return, Russia has worked to weaken U.N. sanctions on North Korea, offering relief from its long-standing economic struggles, which have been made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic.
“By strengthening cooperation with Russia, North Korea hopes to gain economic and military support, enhance its bargaining power in international negotiations, and address regional security concerns,” said Sun Kuo-Hsiang, an international affairs professor at Taiwan’s Nanhua University.
Aligning with Russia offers North Korea several strategic advantages, according to Sun. Russia can provide vital economic aid, energy resources, and advanced military technology that are difficult to obtain due to international sanctions. This alliance increases Pyongyang’s leverage on the global stage by signaling it has powerful allies, potentially compelling other nations to take its demands more seriously. Additionally, cooperation with Russia helps North Korea counterbalance U.S. influence in the region and reduces its vulnerability to pressure from any single country, Sun said.
Su provided further insight: “Kim’s main purpose is to maintain control within North Korea. There are factions within North Korea that are extremely pro-China. By pivoting toward Russia, he aims to reduce dependence on China and tighten his grip on power.”
Historical Tensions with China
During the Korean War (1950-53), China played a pivotal role in supporting North Korea against United Nations forces, helping to preserve the regime of Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong Un’s grandfather. This “blood-forged” alliance laid the foundation for their relationship over the decades.
In 1961, the two countries signed a mutual defense and aid treaty, where China pledged immediate military and other support by all means to North Korea if it faced an external attack. The agreement was renewed in 1981, 2001, and again in 2021.
Despite China’s decades of trade and aid to sustain Kim’s regime, North Korea’s relationship with China has long been fraught with mistrust.
Han Gi-beom, a researcher at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, wrote that Kim in 2015 reportedly referred to China as a “5,000-year-old enemy,” highlighting deep-seated historical grievances.
Although China has been North Korea’s largest economic benefactor, Pyongyang has never viewed Beijing as a truly reliable ally.
Tensions were noticed during the Six-Party Talks between 2003 and 2009, where Beijing sought to use North Korea as leverage against the West, particularly the United States, to gain concessions. “China and North Korea appeared in conflict during the Six-Party Talks, but it was largely tactical. Their long-term cooperation, especially in nuclear matters, was strategic,” Su noted.
However, Beijing’s denuclearization strategy has evolved over the years. In May, China, Japan, and South Korea issued a joint declaration supporting efforts to denuclearize the region. While welcomed internationally, it triggered North Korea’s defiance. That same day, Pyongyang attempted to launch its “No. 2 military reconnaissance satellite,” which failed but was seen as a clear response.
“North Korea’s symbolic gestures serve as a warning to China,” Sun explained. “Pyongyang demands a clearer stance from Beijing on denuclearization that aligns with its interests.”
North Korea has also taken steps to limit Chinese cultural and economic influence domestically. Authorities have reportedly expanded bans on Chinese movies and TV shows, confiscated media devices containing Chinese content, and increased monitoring of Chinese residents. “These actions reflect North Korea’s wariness of Chinese influence,” Sun said. “It’s part of their strategy to emphasize independence and safeguard ideological purity.”
Su agrees.
“Kim Jong Un’s harsh rhetoric and actions signal discontent but primarily serve his goal of consolidating power and managing internal factions,” he said, adding that tensions between the two countries are rooted in a complex mix of “historical grievances, internal politics, and strategic calculations.”
For China, maintaining influence over North Korea without appearing overly intrusive is vital; any instability in North Korea could directly affect China’s security and economic interests, he added.
Despite apparent strains, the alliance between North Korea and China remains grounded in mutual interests, said Su.
“Their long-term alliance framework cannot change. If anyone thinks these three parties—North Korea, China, and Russia—will eventually break up, I can only say that is a very strange viewpoint.”
Jessica Mao and Xin Ning contributed to this report.