Southeast Asia could see higher-than-normal rainfall in the coming months, threatening further disruptions to agriculture, tourism, and industrial output in a region already hit by a series of storms this year.
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Weather forecasters predict wetter conditions from the Philippines to Vietnam through November, in large part because of the emerging La Nina phenomenon, which moves warm water toward the western Pacific Ocean and brings more rainfall over the region.
More rain could hamper recovery efforts in Vietnam, which in September was battered by Typhoon Yagi, the worst storm to hit the country in decades. The manufacturing powerhouse has already taken a 40 trillion dong (US$1.6 billion) hit from Yagi, and authorities have warned that damage from the storm – like inundated factories and flooded rice and coffee harvests – could cut into this year’s overall economic growth.
Tourism-dependent Thailand is staring at a 30 billion baht (US$904 million) bill in damages from a wave of flooding in the north, including in Chiang Mai, which forced the evacuation of around 100 elephants from a conservation centre. And the Philippines, which sees around nine typhoons each year, is still reeling from several deadly storms in recent months, including Gaemi in July, Yagi in September, and Krathon in October.
“La Nina conditions are predicted from October-November 2024 onwards, one of the factors contributing to a chance of above-normal rainfall,” across several countries in the region, the Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre said.
Singapore issued a flood alert on Monday as the inter-monsoon period brought lightning and thundery showers to the tiny city state. The Philippine weather agency predicts large parts of the archipelago may see above-average rainfall through the end of the year and 160 per cent above average in January.
Vietnam is forecast to see higher-than-average rainfall, including in the export-oriented and industry-heavy north, according to the country’s meteorological service. The country’s central region, another important industrial hub, could see as many as five flood events through March.
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