A former South Korean spymaster has disputed an intelligence report suggesting that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s 12-year-old daughter is being groomed to be his successor, with analysts agreeing it would contradict the secrecy of past successions and the patriarchal structure of the regime.
Park Jie-won, a lawmaker from the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea who headed the National Intelligence Service (NIS) from 2020 to 2022, dismissed a recent claim by the country’s spy agency that Kim Ju-ae is being trained to inherit her father’s position.
“I don’t believe Ju-ae is being prepared as the successor,” Park said during an SBS radio news talk show on Tuesday. “Never before has a socialist country like North Korea put up a daughter, a woman, as its leader.”
Park revealed that US and South Korean intelligence agencies have gathered information indicating that Ju-ae has an older brother and a younger sibling of unconfirmed gender. “I suspect his existence is kept secret as he is studying abroad,” Park said.
He drew parallels to the past, noting that when Kim Jong-un and his sister Kim Yo-jong were studying in Geneva as teenagers, their identities were completely concealed from the outside world for their safety.
The NIS reported to the National Assembly on Monday that Ju-ae was being groomed to succeed her father, though the selection was not final, and he could ultimately choose someone else.
The intelligence agency said its assessment came after analysing her appearances at public events such as missile launches and military parades, and the appellations North Korea used to refer to her.
Ju-ae made her public debut in November 2022 when she joined her parents at an inspection of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Since then, appellations for her in the North’s state news media have been upgraded from the “beloved” child to “respected” child, to the “Morning Star” of the country and, most recently in March, great “Hyangdo” (great person of guidance).
It marked the first time North Korean state media addressed her and her father with the same appellation – “great persons of guidance” – fuelling speculation among analysts that Ju-ae is being groomed to follow in her father’s footsteps.
“This indicates her being groomed as the successor,” said Ahn Chan-il, president of the World Institute for North Korea Studies.
Kim Jong-un and his late father, Kim Jong-il, were similarly celebrated as the country’s “Morning Star” when they were being groomed for leadership, Ahn noted.
He pointed out that Kim Jong-un has mostly brought his daughter to military events, a strategy perceived as an effort to garner military support for her potential succession.
“Given all these public displays, introducing an unknown male successor at this point would only lead to significant confusion among North Koreans,” Ahn said during an interview on YTN TV on Tuesday.
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Will North Korea’s next leader be a woman with Kim Jong-un’s daughter on the rise?
Will North Korea’s next leader be a woman with Kim Jong-un’s daughter on the rise?
However, Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, expressed doubt that Ju-ae would become the successor.
Both Kim Jong-un and his father, Kim Jong-il, secretly spent many years preparing for their successions of power to ensure their safety and prevent any resistance to the hereditary transition in the ostensibly socialist country.
“The succession issue is a top secret in North Korea, and there is no precedent for a potential successor being exposed to the public eye in advance like Ju-ae,” Hong told This Week in Asia. “This unusually early exposure raises doubts about her becoming the successor.”
He also questioned whether a female leader with no military experience could lead the highly male-dominated and militarised society, and control the nuclear arsenal. “Kim Jong-un had to carry out extensive purges and demotions within the military over a long period to consolidate his power. For Ju-ae, achieving such control would be exceedingly difficult as a woman,” he added.
Choi Kyong-hui, president of the South and North Development (SAND) Institute, also dismissed Ju-ae as a potential successor.
“In such a deeply patriarchal Confucian culture, the obstacles are significant for Kim Ju-ae, as a woman, to ascend to power,” she wrote in September 2023 on the SAND website.
If she were to succeed, the following generations would have different surnames, implying a discontinuity in the Kim dynasty, she said.
“In short, Kim Ju-ae’s appearance serves merely as a tool to enhance Kim Jong-un’s governance” and to project his image as a caring father, she added.
