US President Joe Biden’s abrupt withdrawal and endorsement of Vice-President Kamala Harris on Sunday has paved the way for a presidential bid that would largely follow Biden’s China policy, if she is elected, according to analysts.
But there were uncertainties over whether she could win the Democratic Party’s nomination due to her mixed record while in political office, they said.
Chong Ja Ian, a US-China relations specialist at the National University of Singapore, said he expected Harris to follow the China policy set by Biden.
“A Harris administration may be more consistent and systematic in its approach to policies toward [China] … Harris has been on record supporting human rights issues that [China] and the [Communist Party of China] finds critical,” he said.
Harris is considered to be tough on issues such as human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, as well as Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy. She has stepped up contacts with US partners in the region and pledged US commitment to help counter China’s military activities in the disputed South China Sea.
She met Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te at the inauguration of Honduran President Xiomara Castro in 2022 and has not flinched over continued US support for the island, while also being vocal in her support for the US Chips and Science Act to compete with China’s semiconductor industry.
Shen Dingli, an international relations analyst based in Shanghai, said it remained unclear how Harris’ foreign policy would be different since she has mostly echoed Biden’s foreign policy on the international stage.
However, to boost her chances during a heated election campaign, Harris could propose tougher policies on China, including higher tariffs on Chinese products, similar to what former president Donald Trump imposed, Shen said.
Trump has threatened to target all Chinese goods with a 60 per cent tariff if re-elected, including duties of up to 200 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles. Chinese EVs already face 100 per cent duties under Biden as part of US$18 billion worth of tariffs on Beijing imposed in May.
“[Harris] will do it even more harshly than Biden to compete with Trump … Next, she will tell his audience and the Democratic Party that she can target China more harshly than other Democratic candidates,” Shen said.
Shen added he did not think the Democrats could win in November even with Harris, whom he believed had a smaller chance of beating Trump than Biden.
“The Democratic Party faces two crises: one is about its platform, and the other is about its [lack of] talent,” he said, adding that the party’s border and immigration policy was driving voters away.
Harris was given the job of tackling the US’ border issues when she entered office but her efforts have been criticised for lacking results. More than 2.4 million illegal immigrants crossed the US border from Mexico in the 2023 financial year, a 40 per cent increase over 2021, according to data from the US House Committee on Homeland Security.
Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute, a Beijing-based think tank, said Biden’s withdrawal was the best scenario for Democrats to boost their election chances, but he said he doubted if Harris could be a capable leader due to a troubled record at home.
“She has not really been very visible … She has not really been able to handle any major policy initiatives. And her background is not stellar,” Tangen said.
“I think [if the Democrats] really want to beat Donald Trump … they need somebody who’s a moderate Republican. It’s not clear what she stands for.”
During her time as the attorney general of California in 2014, Harris approved a controversial law that made theft of items valued under US$950 misdemeanors. She has also raised questions about her leadership style, with a staff exodus from her office reported in 2021.
In terms of China policy, Tangen said Harris had not shown any distinctive policy vision as vice-president as there was “no daylight” between her views and Biden’s.
And given the previous reports of “problems” with her staff, Tangen wondered how many people in Biden’s cabinet in charge of China policy – such as diplomats Antony Blinken and Kurt Campbell – would want to work with her.
While Biden was quick to endorse Harris on Sunday, top Democrats, such as former president Barack Obama and House speaker Nancy Pelosi have been silent. The Democrats will announce their presidential nominee during their national convention next month.
