News Analysis
Democrats are waging some of their strongest attacks in Ohio, challenging its status as a reliably “red” Republican state. The GOP is countering with an “all-out effort,” said Mark Caleb Smith, based partly on what he witnessed at his own doorstep.
“I’ve had four canvassers visit my house, all from the Republican Party,” said Smith, a professor who lives and works in Cedarville, a Republican-heavy southwest Ohio village of fewer than 5,000 people.
Smith’s experience with the repeat door-knockers hints at how many resources the GOP is devoting to shoring up its base in rural areas, he told The Epoch Times.
That effort comes as Republicans face an unusually high number of competitive Democratic challengers on Ohio’s Nov. 3 midterm ballot.
The state’s heated race for governor has drawn the most national attention recently, distracting from Ohio’s crucial U.S. Senate contest and 15 U.S. House races, a few of which are considered competitive.
The stakes are high for Republicans. If the GOP loses its majority in either chamber of Congress, Democrats are expected to stall Republican President Donald Trump’s agenda for his final two years in office.
Historic Trends
With so many “blue” contenders in the Buckeye State, “It feels more like when Ohio was a true ‘purple’ state … an indicator of national trends,” said Smith, director of political studies at Cedarville University.
A political maxim holds that “as Ohio goes, so goes the nation.”
From 1900 to 2024, Ohioans chose the winning presidential candidate 90.6 percent of the time—the nation’s most accurate record, Ballotpedia says.
Ohio accurately mirrors America because no single sector dominates the state’s population, economy, or politics, opined political analyst Kyle Kondik, author of “The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President.”
A five-decade presidential-pick streak for Ohio ended in 2020, when Democrat Joe Biden lost the state but won the White House.
In recent years, politicos generally considered Ohio firmly Republican; the state’s voters said yes to Trump during all three of his presidential runs since 2016.
Midterms in this non-presidential-election year are testing whether Republicans have staying power in Ohio as the 2028 presidential race looms.
Thus, this election season, bellwether Ohio could function more like a weathervane, indicating if political winds are shifting or holding steady.
Since early this year, Democrats have been hammering incumbent Republicans for escalating consumer costs.
Through that strategy, “they are trying to give voters the permission to vote against Republicans without voting against Trump,” Smith said.
If that tactic works, and Republicans lose key races in Ohio, “It might be the first signal of a big night for Democrats,” Smith said.
Conversely, if Republicans hang onto their current Ohio seats, “that is probably a good sign” for the GOP, he said.
Pivotal Senate Showdown
Senate Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) named Ohio among four states forming a “firewall” to protect Republican control of the Senate. The other states are Maine, Iowa, and Alaska, he told Fox News.
Incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) faces a challenge from former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). The RealClear Politics average of opinion polls gives Brown a 2.6-percent edge over Husted—a statistical dead heat.
The two men are battling for a senatorial berth that Republicans have held since 1999, when former astronaut John Glenn, a Democrat, left the Senate.
In 2025, Gov. Mike DeWine (R-Ohio) appointed Husted to fill the seat after then-Sen. JD Vance became Trump’s vice president. The winner of this special election will serve the remaining term, which expires in January 2029.
Prior to joining the Senate, Husted held elected office in Ohio for 26 years, last serving as DeWine’s lieutenant governor.
Brown, a former three-term senator, is attempting a comeback two years after losing his seat to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio).
Major issues include immigration, data centers, and affordability.
On immigration, Husted advocates tough border enforcement while attacking Brown’s past record supporting amnesty and “sanctuary cities” shielding illegal immigrants. The Ohio Fraternal Order of Police union and National Border Patrol have endorsed Husted.
Brown favors securing the border and deporting criminals. But he opposes “mass arrests and deportations that are disrupting families who are here working every day, paying taxes,” he said in a TV interview.
On affordability, Brown has alleged that Husted is aligned with corporations and wealthy donors. Many labor unions back Brown, including large organizations such as the AFL-CIO. Husted counters that Republican tax cuts and economic development efforts are helping families.
On data centers, Brown criticized Husted for offering them tax incentives. Both candidates have said they want to protect ratepayers from absorbing the cost of energy needed to support the centers.
Musical Chairs and a Nasty Governor’s Race
At the state level, this year’s Ohio election slate resembles a political version of musical chairs.
Republicans hold the auditor, treasurer, attorney general, and secretary of state positions. But because of term limits for three incumbents and the previous attorney general’s resignation, a reshuffling is in the works.
For all four top jobs, Republican contenders face Democratic opponents.
Those races have drawn little attention, however, in contrast to the consequential Brown-Husted contest—and a headline-grabbing bitter battle for governor.
Democrat Dr. Amy Acton and Republican businessman Vivek Ramaswamy are locked in one of the nation’s most contentious political duels of this election. They are vying for the seat that term-limited DeWine vacates in January.
The current governor endorsed Ramaswamy, a fellow Republican, yet he has also praised Acton, who served in his administration.
Republicans have held the Ohio governorship since 2011—and Trump won the state by 11 percentage points in 2024. Further, billionaire Ramaswamy has far outspent Acton.
Despite those advantages for Ramaswamy, he and Acton were in a statistical tie as of Oct. 30, according to the RealClear Politics average of opinion polls. Acton is ahead by about 4.3 percentage points.
A third candidate, libertarian Don Kissick, is trying to nibble into the major party candidates’ vote totals—which could sway the outcome of this tight, controversial contest.
Both major parties’ nominees traveled unconventional routes to vie for governor, Smith, the Cedarville professor, noted.
He calls the matchup “fascinating,” given issues that have emerged and each candidate’s lack of “a meaningful political track record.”
The same was true of Trump, a New York businessman and political neophyte when he first sought the presidency more than a decade ago.
No Debate
The race began heating up in September, after Acton rejected invitations to debate Ramaswamy on CNN and a local NBC affiliate.
Since then, he has repeatedly accused her of refusing to debate substantive issues.
Those include data centers, taxes and affordability, education, and continuing debate over Acton’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic while she served as state health director.
On data centers, Acton calls for a “conditional moratorium” that would require any new centers to meet conditions such as using union labor and covering their utility costs.
Ramaswamy said he would delay new approvals until lawmakers require developers to provide free electricity to nearby residents and pay full property taxes to fund homeowners’ tax rebates.
On taxes, Acton favors expanding the homestead exemption to benefit senior citizens, an earned-income tax credit, and child tax credits for working families.
Ramaswamy proposes rolling back property taxes to pre-pandemic levels. He would also immediately launch investigations into every locality that has more than doubled property taxes since 2020.
The state recently enacted a 90-day hold on the state gasoline tax, an idea Acton supported and Ramaswamy pushed through with help from his running mate, Ohio Senate President Rob McColley.
On education, Acton calls for restoring public-school funding, reform of private-school vouchers, and providing free meals to schoolchildren. Ramaswamy is pushing for higher academic standards, merit-based pay for teachers, and enhanced career-technical education.
Background Controversies
Because neither candidate has held elected office, other aspects of their qualifications have come into play.
Acton rose to public prominence in 2020 as Ohio’s health director, often appearing alongside DeWine during TV news updates about the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Amy put partisanship aside to serve the people of Ohio,” her website says, crediting her with saving lives.
Ohio’s statewide shutdown of schools, signed by Acton, was the nation’s first. Other orders closed businesses, restricted public gatherings, and suspended in-person voting during the March 2020 primary election.
DeWine said those decisions were his.
She left the health director’s position in June 2020, ending her 16-month tenure.
Today, Ramaswamy is among critics who still blame Acton for lingering negative effects of the restrictions. He also says her decision to resign from her job in mid-2020 raises questions over her ability to handle the governorship.
After being educated at both Harvard and Yale, Ramaswamy built biotech businesses and became a self-made billionaire. Now 41, he sought the Republican nomination for president in 2024, running against Trump and others. Trump has endorsed him in the gubernatorial race.
Ramaswamy has largely self-funded his campaign and outspent Acton; in response, she said in a fundraising post: “You cannot buy Ohio!”
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DeWine has also criticized both candidates for negative campaign tactics. The governor recently urged Ramaswamy to remove what he said was a particularly offensive ad.
Ramaswamy accused media outlets of “a double standard” for condemning his ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother, but overlooking an Acton ad accusing him of “hiring his own mother to manipulate clinical trial data.” He called that claim “slanderous.”
But DeWine said circumstances surrounding the Ramaswamy ad made it more troubling.
Decades ago, Acton accused her stepfather of sexually abusing her as a child. He was charged but was never tried; he and Acton’s mother, Donna Arthur, moved out of state. Mother and daughter haven’t spoken since 1978, but both publicly aired parts of their history in 2020.
In Ramaswamy’s ad, Arthur urges Ohioans not to vote for her daughter, accusing her of lying about her opponent and her past.
The ad does not accuse Acton of being dishonest about the sexual abuse. But that backstory sparked outrage, although some Republicans, including Trump and Vance, defended Ramaswamy.
Smith, the Cedarville professor, said most voters already have their minds made up, regardless of ads.
But he called the Ramaswamy ad “symbolically important.”
“If Ramaswamy wins, the perception will be that this ad helped him get over the finish line,” Smith said, which could embolden candidates to follow suit.
On the other hand, some Republicans worry that backlash could cost Ramaswamy the governorship and hurt down-ballot candidates.
Smith cautioned: “I think it is easy to read too much into advertisements.”
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