DALLAS—A Democrat hasn’t won a Texas Senate race in decades. In these midterms, some feel that could change.
Amid a fractious election cycle midway through the second Trump administration, early in-person voting is already underway in the contest between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, and Texas state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat.
The Lone Star State has long been seen as a conservative bulwark—but Paxton, who defeated Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the GOP primary runoff, is far from guaranteed a victory against the Democrat from Austin. Conversations on the ground revealed support for, and opposition to, both candidates.
Most polling shows the Democrat with a slight lead. VoteHub, a political media organization that tracks early voting across the country, estimates that early votes and mail votes so far tilt toward Talarico. The group sees him narrowly on track to victory, an outcome that would make him the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988.
Not everyone is so sure.
“It’s a toss-up,” Daron R. Shaw, a pollster and political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, told The Epoch Times.
Shaw’s judgement aligns with assessments from the Cook Political Report, the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, and other analysts who have monitored the race as it has tightened over the past several months.
High energy prices, the Iran war, and other concerns have dampened enthusiasm for Republicans and President Donald Trump, jeopardizing the GOP’s control of the Senate.
Republicans and their allies have sought to highlight Talarico’s statements on gender ideology and other hot-button cultural issues along with his alleged violation of residency rules during his 2022 campaign for the statehouse.
Democrats have zeroed in on Paxton’s record, too, including a 2023 impeachment in the Texas House for alleged abuse of his office to help a donor. The Texas Senate ultimately acquitted him.
David Schultz, a political scientist and legal scholar at Hamline University, said Paxton is “not a very good candidate.”
He also made a conditional prediction to The Epoch Times: “If the Democrats win the Texas Senate race, it’s a bellwether that Democrats will have a phenomenal night.”
In counties across Texas—including Harris County, home to Houston—the first day of early voting broke midterm election records, reflecting an increase in voter participation over 2022.
Early voting in the state ends on Oct. 30. Election Day is Nov. 3.
Money and Power
With the Senate on the line, the matchup has become the costliest non-presidential race ever tracked, drawing $544.5 million in ad spending so far, according to the political advertising intelligence firm AdImpact.
The bulk of that money, $386.3 million, has favored Paxton’s candidacy. That’s in keeping with broader trends during an election cycle in which Republicans have often enjoyed a financial advantage.
The Texas attorney general’s big benefactors include technologist Elon Musk, whose America PAC has backed Paxton and other midterm candidates. LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman—like Musk, a member of Silicon Valley’s tight-knit group of PayPal founders known colloquially as the “Paypal Mafia”—has donated millions to Lone Star Rising, a super PAC supporting Talarico.
Trump has repeatedly traveled to Texas to campaign for Paxton. The GOP’s unprecedented midterm convention also took place in the state.
Former President Barack Obama joined Talarico at an event earlier this year. The state representative has also netted some high-profile defectors from the ranks of Texas Republicans, including former President George W. Bush’s brother, Neil, and former Cornyn staffer Jacob Smith, who joined the Talarico campaign in August.
Paxton’s conservative bona fides on the Second Amendment, immigration, and other issues earned him early support from such Make America Great Again (MAGA) stalwarts as Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) and Turning Point’s political arm, Turning Point Action.
Yet, alongside his impeachment and other issues, including a federal bribery investigation that did not lead to criminal charges, that record may cost Paxton support from non-MAGA Republicans and boost enthusiasm for Talarico in the state.
In Schultz’s view, Paxton’s candidacy has “opened up room for the Democrat to be a moderate running in Texas.”
Shaw, who works on polling for Fox News and other organizations, wondered whether surveys on the race capture the reality of the Texas electorate.
“Are we sure we have the right Republicans?” he asked, questioning whether pollsters are getting enough responses from MAGA Republicans to make accurate predictions.
On the Ground in Texas
In the days before early voting started, Texans shared a range of opinions about the candidates.
Outside a Paxton rally in Killeen, near Fort Hood, on Oct. 17, Glenn Vallejo linked his support for the state attorney general to his disgust with Talarico’s past comment that there are six sexes.
“Nobody’s wife, nobody’s daughter should be exposed to that,” he told The Epoch Times.
Larry Sturm, who was in line for the event with his son, Joel, spoke of the GOP as a whole when asked about his decision to back a specific candidate—Paxton.
“It’s not just about one man, but about the party,” he told The Epoch Times.
Outside a Talarico rally in San Marcos on Oct. 15, Allyson Marin, a student at nearby Texas State University, said she supports the state representative because of his efforts to cap insulin prices.
“My mom’s a diabetic,” she told The Epoch Times. “It helps a lot if the prices are lower.”
Pamela Hemphill-Gordon, also outside the event, said Talarico has won her over through his statements on social media and TV.
“He seems like he’s really genuine and that he really cares for the people,” she said.
On Oct. 16, outside a coffee shop in San Marcos, Allison Ekrot told The Epoch Times she supports Talarico over Paxton.
“I feel like I actually know his policies and what he stands for,” the Gen Z voter said, adding that in her view, Paxton uses insulting rhetoric and “doesn’t seem to actually do anything.”
Not far away, Roy, a Gen Z voter who declined to share his last name, sounded distrustful of both candidates. He told The Epoch Times he doesn’t plan on voting this cycle.
Roy described himself as a disaffected conservative voter upset with Trump over the Iran war and other issues, saying rising gas prices have hurt his small business.
“I hope that they kind of get stunned a little bit, just so it wakes them up,” he said of the administration and the midterms.
What to Watch
Schultz attributes the race’s competitiveness to shifting demographics: Texas is becoming more Hispanic, and its urban areas are growing rapidly. Those factors could tilt the state toward the Democrats.
He does not see the contest as a replay of Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) narrow victory over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in 2018, another Trump midterm election drama.
“Talarico has been competitive,” he said, contrasting the state representative’s high-profile run with an unexpectedly strong showing from the Democratic congressman that “surprised Ted Cruz.”
Shaw said the state’s removal of a straight-ticket voting checkbox on the ballot, which only took effect after the Cruz–O’Rourke race, is “a decision that I’m sure a lot of Republicans are regretting.” He wonders whether some GOP-leaning voters will defect to Talarico or not vote in the race.
Schultz is interested in the results in suburbs near Dallas, particularly around Denton, as well as in suburbs near San Antonio and Corpus Christi.
He anticipates that suburban voters near Dallas will skew moderate; he expects the suburban vote near the other two cities to be both moderate and more Hispanic.
Shaw spoke of tracking the vote in rural parts of the state—West Texas, portions of East Texas, and the Texas panhandle—to see if Republicans are driving the turnout and vote split that Democrats need to win.
If Republican support in those places falls from roughly two-to-one to the mid- or high 50s, “That’s a warning sign,” Shaw said.
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